A precarious regional flashpoint

Abstract

The possible crisis in the Taiwan Strait is a looming regional flashpoint that could potentially drag many Asian states into an armed international conflict. Countries like the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and others might become frontline states in any militarized confrontation involving Taiwan. Beyond geographic proximity, the intensified superpower rivalry between the United States and China substantially frames the current precarity of the regional security environment.

Restraint and responsible behavior must remain the guiding norms of behavior for all states in the Indo-Pacific over the Taiwan strait. The repercussions in the region and the globe are too serious and far-reaching if conflict erupts. The Philippines, for example, will suffer a lot. First, the country's economy is heavily intertwined with both China and Taiwan. China is the second-ranked trade partner of the Philippines with US$6.63 billion worth of trade in 2021. That same year, Taiwan ranked 9th with $2.5 billion worth of trade. It is highly likely that the Philippines will suffer a major economic blow if cross-strait relations reach its lowest point. Moreover, there are 150,000 overseas Filipino workers in Taiwan and around the same number are in Hong Kong. They will likely need to be repatriated in any militarized conflict which could almost be a logistical nightmare of epic proportions for the Philippine government. Given the global economic slowdown and economic hardship currently experienced by the country, another economic downturn caused by geopolitical conflict is the last thing the country needs.

Apart from the massive economic implications of the crisis in the strait, the Philippines might also be at the receiving end of a major humanitarian crisis. A protracted military conflict will possibly generate thousands if not millions of refugees. Among ASEAN countries, it is the Philippines that signed all major international conventions on sheltering and protecting stateless persons. Historically, the country has been a haven for refugees and other displaced persons. This has been the historical identity of the Philippines in the past and it will not shirk from opening its borders to the Taiwanese people of the need arises.

Another strategic imperative for the Philippines is its shared identity as a small state that also has a territorial and maritime dispute with China. Though the 2016 Arbitral Award has resolved this dispute in favor of the Philippines, China had remained adamant on the triviality of this piece of international law and has continued to assert its dominant presence in the West Philippine Sea. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is too near an event for the Philippine government to forget that undue intrusion and even invasion of a superpower to a less powerful country has no place in 21st century international relations. Thus, the Philippines and other neighboring states should not simply dismiss the need for solidarity against irresponsible and undue behavior guided by the wanton exercise of military strength against sovereign nations.

Asian Politics & Policy (APP) has published numerous articles on Taiwan over the years. Schreer (2017) argued that cross-strait relations have been fraught with hostility since the election of Democratic Progressive Party-led governments since 2016. Strategies of coercion employed by Beijing are “double-edged swords” as unification is being resisted by Taiwan under President Tsai Ing-wen. In another article, Chen (2019) discussed how US policy under the Trump administration has greatly favored Taiwan to check Chin's growing regional power in the Indo-Pacific. It remains to be seen whether the current Biden administration could match his predecessor, but the recent trip of US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi signaled the elevation of Taiwan relations among key US policymakers. Finally, Wang et al., (2021) critically examined the 1992 consensus as the pillar of cross-strait relations. Domestic public opinion in Taiwan remains supportive of the consensus, many Taiwanese believe that is an agreement between two sovereign countries and many do not support the interpretation of the Kuomintang Party.

In this issue of APP, we are pleased to publish original research articles that covered topics ranging from political trust in the Philippines, social policy in South Korea, administrative reforms in China, and housing policy in India. We hope that our journal can be a good academic medium for serious and rigorous debates and discussions on public policies and international affairs in Asia.