Verification analysis of relationship between driving failure probability and traffic accident rate

IF 2.4 3区 工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Journal of Transportation Safety & Security Pub Date : 2022-07-14 DOI:10.1080/19439962.2022.2098440
Qifeng Yu, Kesi You, Jinxian Weng
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Abstract

Abstract To enable the reliability theory to be further applied in roadway geometry design and safety evaluation, it is necessary to explore and establish the relationship between the failure index in reliability theory and the traffic accident rate. Based on the collected data, the risk ranking-based verification method and regression prediction model-based verification method considering the probability of driving failure were used to verify the relationship between the probability of driving failure and traffic accident rate. The Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient was calculated and the results show that there is a moderate correlation between the driving failure probability of the selected road segment and the traffic accident rate. Four regression prediction models for both two-lane and four-lane roads were established considering the probability of driving failure and four significant variables including segment length, annual average daily traffic volume, speed limit, and curve radius. The results show that the established regression prediction models can fit accident data well. This research verified and established the relationship between the probability of driving failure and the road traffic accident rate and pointed out that the traffic accident rate has a positive correlation with the probability of driving failure.
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驾驶故障概率与交通事故率关系的验证分析
摘要为了使可靠性理论进一步应用于道路几何设计和安全评价中,有必要探索和建立可靠性理论中失效指标与交通事故率之间的关系。在收集数据的基础上,采用基于风险排序的验证方法和考虑驾驶失败概率的基于回归预测模型的验证方法,验证驾驶失败概率与交通事故率之间的关系。计算Spearman等级相关系数,结果表明所选路段的驾驶失误概率与交通事故率之间存在适度的相关关系。考虑路段长度、年平均日交通量、限速、弯道半径等4个显著变量,分别建立了双车道和四车道道路的驾驶失效概率回归预测模型。结果表明,所建立的回归预测模型能较好地拟合事故数据。本研究验证并建立了驾驶失误概率与道路交通事故率之间的关系,指出交通事故率与驾驶失误概率呈正相关关系。
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CiteScore
6.00
自引率
15.40%
发文量
38
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