Temperature and Precipitation Trends Using CMIP6 Model Data Using the Different Senarios in Jimma Zone, ONRS of Ethiopia

Abstract

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset is used to examine projected trend in temperature and precipitation over Jimma zone. The changes are computed under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs; SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP6 and SSP5-8.5) from 1980-2020. This study was undertaken to analyze rainfall and Temperature trend in Jimma zone, ONRS of Ethiopia. The study employed Mann-Kendall’s test to detect change in rainfall trends. Results for rainfall trend analysis for Jimma zone indicated decreasing trends, Overall, the observed trends were not statistically significant at 1% and 5%. Temperature is projected to increase over the entire domain under all three SSPs, by as much as 6 °C under SSP5-8.5, and with more pronounced increased. The mean temperature in the study area ranges from 20’C to 25 ‘C with annual average temperature of 22 ‘C. The rate of change of temperature was found to be 0.0181, 0.3536, 0.2041 and 0.026 ‘C per decade for mean, minimum and maximum respectively during the period of 1980–2020. The results of MK test for monthly precipitation data revealed a statistically significant decreasing trend (at 10% level of significance). attributed to an increase in the minimum temperature. It is, therefore, imperative to adjust the agriculture activity with the variability situation and design planned climate change adaptation strategies so as to enhance the adaptive capacity and resilience of rainfed dependent smallholder farmers