The demographic transitions

Abstract

All demographic researchers agree on the meaning of demographic transition as the movement from a traditional regime of demographic equilibrium with high fertility and mortality rates to a modern regime with low fertility and mortality rates. During the period of transition the population undergoes considerable growth because the mortality decline precedes the fertility decline. The concept is clear but its relevance is not established: is it a theory a scheme or a model? A recent study of the demographic transition in 67 countries from 1720-1984 by Jean-Claude Chesnais concluded that no "theory" of demographic transition could predict the particular development of a specific country but that the concept of demographic transition is the only interpretive scheme for contemporary demographic change. The same general factors are believed to have caused fertility reduction in all countries where it has occurred including improved health conditions increased educational and income levels and improved status of women. 2 key variables in the process appear to be declining nuptiality and increased female education. The early 1980s saw a slowing of demographic growth in most of the less developed countries. Exceptions among countries with over 50 million inhabitants were Bangladesh Pakistan Vietnam and Nigeria. A common feature of demographic transitions is a mortality decline. All apparent exceptions such as France Germany and Belgium are being shown to follow the rule after all. A typology of transitions can be constructed according to the length of the period of most rapid population growth and according to the magnitude of this growth which may vary from less than 1% to over 3% per year. Chesnais in his work proposed a new concept the transitional multiplier of population. The intensity of the transition determines the final population size more than the duration. Transition multipliers have ranged from less than 2 in Ireland and about 2 in France to about 4 in Sweden 4 or 5 in India 7-10 in Mexico and 15 or more in Kenya. As a general rule the most recent transitions have tended to be short and intense. The author predicts a multiplication by 7 for the world as a whole between 1850-2050 which represents less than 1%/year on average. The multiplier would be 4 for the developed countries whose share of the total will decline from 25% to 14% and 8 for the less developed countries. Another factor differentiating national demographic 5 has been the simultaneous occurrence in some cases of migration. No decisive correlation between economic growth and demographic growth has ever been proven. Chesnais believes that the growth of food production has increased faster than the growth of population in less developed countries and that famines are increasingly the result of governmental errors rather than lack of food.