International migration trends.

Abstract

There are thought to be nearly 150 million international migrants as we enter the 21st century if a migrant is taken to mean a person who resides outside of his or her country of birth or citizenship for one year or more. There were an estimated 75 million in 1965 105 million in 1985 and 120 million in 1990. But these estimates are open to question given the difficulty of observing and quantifying international migration (see box). In particular reliable information is lacking on flows—departures transits returns— leaving only that on stocks—the number of migrants resident on a given date in each country—to form an idea of migratory exchanges. Net migration flows to developed countries—arrivals less departures—are estimated to have averaged about 2.4 million people a year in the period 1990-2000 which is highly consistent with the figures for inflows to the main Northern host countries (2.7 million for OECD countries in 1998). Given that this is a net count i.e. combining long-term departures with returns of nationals and non-nationals it can be inferred that annual outflows i.e. emigration worldwide are significantly higher than the estimated 2.4 million particularly if the significant but hard to quantify South-South migration is added. The volume of international migration must not overshadow the fact that it involves only a tiny share of the world population (2.5% of the 6.1 billion people in 2001). The large majority are geographically stable and the picture of a world crisscrossed by vast never ending waves of migrants does not reflect the reality notwithstanding large-scale local and regional population moves chiefly as a result of conflicts political or environmental crises (drought in the Sahel in the 1970s Gulf War in 1991). (excerpt)