How Does Profit Shifting Affect the Balance of Payments?

Shafik Hebous, Alexander Klemm, Yuou Wu
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引用次数: 5

Abstract

Profit shifting by multinational enterprises—through manipulation of transfer prices of related-party trade, intragroup lending, or the location of intangibles—affects international flows, raising the question of its impact on the current account and external balances. This paper approaches this question theoretically and empirically. In theory, profit shifting distorts the components of the current account and bilateral current account balances but leaves a country’s aggregate net balance unaffected. There is, however, a real effect on current account balances, because taxes are paid to different jurisdictions. Moreover—in practice—the measured current account could change, because not all transactions are equally easy to track. Our panel empirical results broadly confirm that the current account balance tends to be, on average, unaffected by profit shifting, but taking heterogeneity into account we find that both the real tax effect and mismeasurement strengthen income balances—and thus the current account—in investment hubs.
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利润转移如何影响国际收支?
跨国企业的利润转移——通过操纵关联方贸易的转移价格、集团内部贷款或无形资产的位置——影响了国际流动,提出了其对经常账户和外部平衡影响的问题。本文从理论和实证两方面探讨了这一问题。理论上,利润转移会扭曲经常账户和双边经常账户余额的组成部分,但一国的总净余额不受影响。然而,这对经常账户余额产生了实际影响,因为税收是向不同的司法管辖区缴纳的。此外,在实践中,计量的经常账户可能会发生变化,因为并非所有的交易都同样容易追踪。我们的小组实证结果广泛证实,平均而言,经常账户余额往往不受利润转移的影响,但考虑到异质性,我们发现实际税收效应和错误测量都加强了投资中心的收入平衡,从而加强了经常账户。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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