Population-based estimates of post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC) prevalence and characteristics

Abstract

Importance: Emerging evidence suggests many people have persistent symptoms after acute COVID-19 illness. Objective: To estimate the prevalence and correlates of persistent COVID-19 symptoms 30 and 60 days post onset using a population-based sample. Design & Setting: The Michigan COVID-19 Recovery Surveillance Study is a population-based cross-sectional survey of a probability sample of adults with confirmed COVID-19 in the Michigan Disease Surveillance System (MDSS). Respondents completed a survey online or via telephone in English, Spanish, or Arabic between June - December 2020. Participants: Living non-institutionalized adults (aged 18+) in MDSS with COVID-19 onset through mid-April 2020 were eligible for selection (n=28,000). Among 2,000 adults selected, 629 completed the survey. We excluded 79 cases during data collection due to ineligibility, 6 asymptomatic cases, 7 proxy reports, and 24 cases missing outcome data, resulting in a sample size of 593. The sample was predominantly female (56.1%), aged 45 and older (68.2%), and Non-Hispanic White (46.3%) or Black (34.8%). Exposures: Demographic (age, sex, race/ethnicity, and annual household income) and clinical factors (smoking status, body mass index, diagnosed comorbidities, and illness severity). Main outcomes and Measures: We defined post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC) as persistent symptoms 30+ days (30-day COVID-19) or 60+ days (60-day COVID-19) post COVID-19 onset. Results: 30- and 60-day COVID-19 were highly prevalent (52.5% and 35.0%), even among respondents reporting mild symptoms (29.2% and 24.5%) and non-hospitalized respondents (43.7% and 26.9%, respectively). Low income was statistically significantly associated with 30-day COVID-19 in adjusted models. Respondents reporting very severe (vs. mild) symptoms had 2.25 times higher prevalence of 30-day COVID-19 (Adjusted Prevalence Ratio [aPR] 2.25, 95% CI 1.46-3.46) and 1.71 times higher prevalence of 60-day COVID-19 (aPR 1.71, 95% 1.02-2.88). Hospitalized (vs. non-hospitalized) respondents had about 40% higher prevalence of both 30-day (aPR 1.37, 95% CI 1.12-1.69) and 60-day COVID-19 (aPR 1.40, 95% CI 1.02-1.93). Conclusions and Relevance: PASC is highly prevalent among cases with severe initial symptoms, and, to a lesser extent, cases with mild and moderate symptoms.