National Resilience Index Model and Public Policy Simulation

D. U. Daihani
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Abstract

Indonesia is one of the world's most populous archipelagic countries. Approximately 270 million people live on a total of 17 845 islands that straddle the middle of the equator. Indonesia is also a multi-ethnic country, having 931 ethnic groupings and 731 distinct dialects. The globe and geopolitics tensions are highly dynamic in the current period of globalization, and changes in one state will influence other countries. As a consequence, changes in a state's strategic environment might have an impact on its stability. These surroundings' influence can have a good impact or improve internal stability, but it can also have negative consequences that endanger internal stability. A state's resilience is determined by the flexibility of all elements of its sociopolitical existence, which is referred to as national resilience. In general, national resilience is described as an organization's capacity to foresee, plan for, respond to, and adapt to gradual change and abrupt shocks in order to survive and thrive. The application of national resilience index measurement is created utilizing the GIS method to determine the state of national resilience. This system is extremely beneficial for undertaking a diagnostic of national resilience conditions and changes in each region at all times. By evaluating national resilience, various strategies may be developed to anticipate diverse environmental effects. This technology may also be used to forecast future situations and generate multiple scenarios for countermeasures using a dynamic system approach.
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国家弹性指数模型与公共政策模拟
印度尼西亚是世界上人口最多的群岛国家之一。大约有2.7亿人生活在横跨赤道中部的17,845个岛屿上。印度尼西亚也是一个多民族国家,有931个民族和731种不同的方言。在当前全球化时期,全球和地缘政治紧张局势是高度动态的,一个国家的变化会影响到其他国家。因此,一个国家战略环境的变化可能对其稳定产生影响。这些环境的影响可以产生良好的影响或促进内部稳定,但也可能产生危害内部稳定的负面后果。一个国家的恢复力是由其社会政治存在的所有要素的灵活性决定的,这被称为国家恢复力。一般来说,国家弹性被描述为一个组织为了生存和发展而预见、计划、响应和适应渐进变化和突然冲击的能力。利用GIS方法建立了国家恢复力指数测量的应用,以确定国家恢复力的状态。这一系统对于在任何时候诊断每个区域的国家复原力条件和变化极为有益。通过评估国家复原力,可以制定各种战略来预测各种环境影响。该技术还可用于预测未来情况,并使用动态系统方法生成多种对策方案。
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