4D Trajectory Prediction of Aircraft Taxiing Based on Fitting Velocity Profile

Abstract

To improve the overall efficiency and comprehensive support capability of airports, a method of predicting 4D taxiing-trajectory for aircraft on airport surface based on fitting velocity profile is proposed. Firstly, the dynamic model of aircraft taxiing is built, and the concept of nominal velocity profile is introduced. Secondly, DSW algorithm is applied to generate a nominal velocity profile. Furthermore, the average velocity modification parameters are calculated to update taxiing velocity, which is influenced by different aircraft types. According to mapping between nominal velocity and instantaneous velocity based on the dynamic equilibrium equation, instantaneous velocity is updated combining with BADA data. Finally, aircraft taxiing 4D trajectory prediction is achieved. It can more accurately predict arriving aircraft at given position and reduce conflict. Case studies demonstrates that this method reduces 47.3% of the average error between estimated time and actual time when compared with the competing methods based on dynamic models.