The Impact of the Coronavirus (Sars-Cov-2) Lockdown on Crime in New York and London, March-June 2020: A Comparative Study

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to assess the relationship between The Spring 2020 COVID-19 Lockdown and the levels of crime in New York City (NYC) and London. Our proposition, derived from the Routine Activity Theory (RAT), the ‘breaches’ theory and input from the 2020 research on lockdown and crime, hypothesised that lockdown measures would lead to reductions in crime. The crime categories selected for this study were: homicide, rape, robbery, violence against a person, burglary, theft and vehicle theft. T-test, F-test and the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression calculations were used to test the hypotheses. The four-month lockdown period in 2020 produced a 15% and 31% crime reduction in NYC and London, respectively. In the case of London, the overall results indicate that changes in routine human activities were indeed largely correlated with the reduction in crime. However, crime patterns in NYC in spring 2020 turned out to be inconsistent. A comparison of crime patterns under lockdown proved dissimilarity between NYC and London. The two-city comparison indicates that crime change related to lockdown may vary across crime types, places, and timespans or may have a detrimental effect on crime levels. The study may be considered suitable for replication and elaboration, particularly in view of the extended longevity of lockdown measures.