Injury severity analysis of drivers in single-vehicle rollover crashes: A random thresholds random parameters hierarchical ordered logit approach

IF 2.4 3区 工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Journal of Transportation Safety & Security Pub Date : 2021-05-18 DOI:10.1080/19439962.2021.1928352
Miao Yu, Jiancheng Long
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引用次数: 13

Abstract

Abstract Most of the existing research efforts have been conducted using the random parameters ordered possibility model to investigate the unobserved heterogeneity; however, relatively few research has explored the threshold heterogeneity. This research intends to examine factors affecting the driver injury severity in single-vehicle (SV) rollover crashes. Specific attention is paid to explore the unobserved heterogeneity of factors and threshold heterogeneity using the random thresholds random parameters hierarchical ordered logit (HOLIT) approach. The police-reported SV rollover crash data collected between 2014 and 2017 is used. Various driver, roadway, crash, and environmental attributes are examined as the explanatory variables. The comparison results suggest that the random parameters random thresholds HOLIT model produces superior data fit. Fifteen indicators significantly affect SV rollover crash severity. Three of the factors are random parameters. The thresholds are also randomly distributed, which are identified by the indicators of middle-aged drivers, old drivers, female drivers, number of lanes (>4) minor arterial, principal arterial, and SUV. Indicator variables of female-driver, number of lanes (>4), minor arterial, and principal arterial increase the values of thresholds, which result in more severe injuries outcomes.
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车辆侧翻事故中驾驶员损伤严重程度分析:随机阈值随机参数分层有序logit方法
现有的研究大多采用随机参数有序可能性模型来研究未观察到的异质性;然而,对阈值异质性的研究相对较少。本研究旨在探讨影响单车侧翻碰撞中驾驶员伤害严重程度的因素。特别注意使用随机阈值随机参数分层有序logit (HOLIT)方法探索未观察到的因素异质性和阈值异质性。使用了警方报告的2014年至2017年期间收集的SV翻车事故数据。各种司机,道路,碰撞和环境属性被检查作为解释变量。对比结果表明,随机参数随机阈值HOLIT模型具有较好的数据拟合效果。15项指标显著影响SV侧翻碰撞严重程度。其中三个因素是随机参数。阈值也是随机分布的,通过中年驾驶员、老年驾驶员、女性驾驶员、>4车道数、小动脉、主干道、SUV等指标来识别阈值。女性驾驶员、车道数(>4)、小动脉和主动脉等指标变量的阈值增大,导致损伤结果更严重。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
15.40%
发文量
38
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