How Will Rebalancing Demand Change Production in the Asia Pacific?

P. Petri
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Rebalancing expenditures among and within surplus and deficit countries has emerged as a key global policy priority. This paper examines the implications of rebalancing expenditure categories in 10 Asia Pacific economies for the structure of production. An aggressive rebalancing scenario is constructed (based on 2007 current account data, since more recent imbalances are smaller) and its detailed production implications are analyzed using a large international input-output system. The changes associated with eliminating excessive international imbalances are found to be modest relative to major expenditure categories in the Asia Pacific. Moreover, significant overlaps in the production induced by different types of expenditures dampen the output effects of shifts among them. This does not mean that rebalancing will be easy to accomplish - spending reallocations are politically difficult - but the need to "reinvent" Asia's growth model appears to be overstated.
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需求再平衡将如何改变亚太地区的生产?
平衡盈余和赤字国家之间和内部的支出已成为一项关键的全球政策优先事项。本文考察了10个亚太经济体的再平衡支出类别对生产结构的影响。本文构建了一个积极的再平衡情景(基于2007年经常账户数据,因为最近的失衡较小),并使用一个大型国际投入产出系统分析了其对生产的详细影响。与亚太地区的主要支出类别相比,与消除过度的国际不平衡有关的变化并不大。此外,由不同类型的支出引起的大量生产重叠抑制了它们之间转移的产出效应。这并不意味着再平衡很容易实现——支出再分配在政治上很困难——但“重塑”亚洲增长模式的必要性似乎被夸大了。
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