Searching for prosperity a comment

Abstract

Kremer, Onatski, and Stock (KOS) criticize twin peaks dynamics in the evolution of cross-country income dynamics. They suggest instead convergence to a single peak at high incomes, with a prolonged transition when polarization and inequality increase. This article makes three points. First, the data are as consistent with a twin peaks characterization as they are for KOS's preferred description—in KOS's own analysis as well as across other studies. Second, the substantive economic message is identical in both twin peaks and KOS views: the global poor are substantial and will continue so—whether for centuries or for infinity is nit-picking. Finally, getting the empirics right matters greatly for theories of economic growth.