A Simulation Study on Eco-environmental Effects of Urbanization Using Responsive Model

Yaobin Liu, Xiaowen Zhuang
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Abstract

Urbanization is a main trend of social-economic development all over the world. But with the scale of urbanization enlarged and the human development intensified, a large scale of infrastructure construction and industry development has given rise to pressures on regional eco-environment for high material consumption and heavy pollution. This paper has taken Jiangxi province as a case and has the application analysis made. Through calculating the comprehensive level of urbanization by means of principle component analysis (PCA) method and comprehensive quality of eco-environment with analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy membership representations (FMR), the paper puts forward response degree model (RDM) and comprehensive response degree model (CRD) by using the economic elasticity function and analyzes the temporal response characteristics and total response intensity of eco-environment to urbanization from 1978-2005 in Jiangxi province. The results reveal that there doesn’t exist corresponding relationship between the urbanization process and eco-environment changing, which concerns with not only urbanized itself advancement pattern, but also the ecological environment construction and protection way.
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基于响应模型的城市化生态环境效应模拟研究
城市化是世界各国社会经济发展的主要趋势。但随着城市化规模的扩大和人类发展的加剧,大规模的基础设施建设和工业发展给区域生态环境带来了高物质消耗和重污染的压力。本文以江西省为例,进行了应用分析。采用主成分分析法(PCA)计算城市化综合水平,采用层次分析法(AHP)和模糊隶属度表示法(FMR)计算生态环境综合质量,利用经济弹性函数,提出了响应度模型(RDM)和综合响应度模型(CRD),分析了1978—2005年江西省生态环境对城市化的时间响应特征和总响应强度。结果表明,城市化进程与生态环境变化之间不存在对应关系,这不仅与城市化本身的推进方式有关,也与生态环境的建设和保护方式有关。
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