Contribution of natural and anthropogenic emissions of CO2 and CH4 to the atmosphere from the territory of Russia to global climate change in the 21st century

Abstract

Obtained the estimates of the contribution of anthropogenic and natural GHG emissions into the atmosphere from the territory of Russia to global climate change under various scenarios of anthropogenic impact in the 21st century. Accounting for changes in climatic conditions can strongly influence the indicators of the impact of various greenhouse gas emissions on the climate system, especially at large time horizons. Moreover, depending on the planning horizon, the role of the natural fluxes of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere from terrestrial ecosystems may change. Currently, terrestrial ecosystems in the Russian regions affect global temperature in both directions: absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere contributes to slowing its growth, and emitting CH4 into the atmosphere accelerates warming. The net effect of the natural fluxes of these greenhouse gases from the Russian regions in modern conditions helps to slow down warming. This net effect is increasing in the first half of the 21st century, and after reaching a maximum (depending on the anthropogenic emission scenario) decreases by the end of the century under all the considered anthropogenic impact scenarios due to an increase in natural CH4 emissions and a decrease in CO2 absorption by terrestrial ecosystems.