Epidemic progression and vaccination in a heterogeneous population. Application to the Covid-19 epidemic

IF 3.1 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Ecological Complexity Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI:10.1016/j.ecocom.2021.100940

Vitaly Volpert , Malay Banerjee , Swarnali Sharma

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引用次数: 8

Abstract

The paper is devoted to a compartmental epidemiological model of infection progression in a heterogeneous population which consists of two groups with high disease transmission (HT) and low disease transmission (LT) potentials. Final size and duration of epidemic, the total and current maximal number of infected individuals are estimated depending on the structure of the population. It is shown that with the same basic reproduction number $R_{0}$ in the beginning of epidemic, its further progression depends on the ratio between the two groups. Therefore, fitting the data in the beginning of epidemic and the determination of $R_{0}$ are not sufficient to predict its long time behaviour. Available data on the Covid-19 epidemic allows the estimation of the proportion of the HT and LT groups. Estimated structure of the population is used for the investigation of the influence of vaccination on further epidemic development. The result of vaccination strongly depends on the proportion of vaccinated individuals between the two groups. Vaccination of the HT group acts to stop the epidemic and essentially decreases the total number of infected individuals at the end of epidemic and the current maximal number of infected individuals while vaccination of the LT group only acts to protect vaccinated individuals from further infection.

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异质人群中的流行病进展和疫苗接种。Covid-19疫情的应用

本文致力于在异质性人群中建立感染进展的区隔流行病学模型，该模型由两个具有高疾病传播(HT)和低疾病传播(LT)潜力的群体组成。流行病的最终规模和持续时间、总感染人数和目前最大感染人数根据人口结构估计。结果表明，在流行初期基本繁殖数R0相同的情况下，其进一步的发展取决于两组之间的比例。因此，拟合流行初期的数据和确定R0不足以预测其长期行为。关于Covid-19流行的现有数据可用于估计HT和LT组的比例。估计的人口结构用于调查接种疫苗对流行病进一步发展的影响。疫苗接种的结果在很大程度上取决于两组之间接种疫苗的个体的比例。HT组疫苗接种的作用是阻止疫情，并从根本上减少疫情结束时的感染总人数和当前的最大感染人数，而LT组疫苗接种的作用仅是保护已接种疫苗的个体免受进一步感染。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Ecological Complexity 环境科学-生态学

CiteScore

7.10

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： Ecological Complexity is an international journal devoted to the publication of high quality, peer-reviewed articles on all aspects of biocomplexity in the environment, theoretical ecology, and special issues on topics of current interest. The scope of the journal is wide and interdisciplinary with an integrated and quantitative approach. The journal particularly encourages submission of papers that integrate natural and social processes at appropriately broad spatio-temporal scales. Ecological Complexity will publish research into the following areas: • All aspects of biocomplexity in the environment and theoretical ecology • Ecosystems and biospheres as complex adaptive systems • Self-organization of spatially extended ecosystems • Emergent properties and structures of complex ecosystems • Ecological pattern formation in space and time • The role of biophysical constraints and evolutionary attractors on species assemblages • Ecological scaling (scale invariance, scale covariance and across scale dynamics), allometry, and hierarchy theory • Ecological topology and networks • Studies towards an ecology of complex systems • Complex systems approaches for the study of dynamic human-environment interactions • Using knowledge of nonlinear phenomena to better guide policy development for adaptation strategies and mitigation to environmental change • New tools and methods for studying ecological complexity