Possibilities of Accounting for the Real Tax Burden When Modeling the Scale of Income Taxation

Abstract

. In the scientific and political circles of Russia, discussions do not stop about the validity of progressive income tax brackets and the need for its application at all. The purpose of the study is to provide economic justification of a progressive income taxation system, which makes it possible to take into account the distribution of the real tax burden among different income groups of the population of modern Russia. The hypothesis of the study is an assumption that in income taxation it will be economical-ly justified and appropriate to use tax rates that would correct imbalances in the inflation of the cost of consumer baskets of different population groups. The methodological framework of the study includes theories describing the impact of progressive income taxation on the economy. The authors’ own data analysis technique was used, taking into account both consumption and household savings, which allowed them to reveal the dependence of consumer and savings behavior of households on their income level. The empirical basis of the study is data of the Federal Statistics Service of Russia and the data of the Russian Monitoring of the Economic Situation and Health of the Population by the Higher School of Economics. The novelty of the results lies in the description of the model of the distribution of the real tax burden with proportional income tax, char-acterized by a four-fold increase in the inflation rate of the consumer basket of the first decile in comparison with the tenth decile. As shown by the empirical data used in the study, taking into account the inequality of decile groups in the inflation of the value of consumer baskets, ensuring an average tax rate of 13 % calls for the introduction of dif-ferentiated tax rates. A progressive model of the distribution of the real tax burden that takes into account the real tax burden should establish a more than four-fold difference of tax rates for higher income groups. The application of such a model in income taxation will require the government to periodically update tax rates and have methods for obtain-ing reliable data on inflation in the value of consumer baskets and the normal amount of savings for each income group.