Towards Sequential Multivariate Fault Prediction for Vehicular Predictive Maintenance

Abstract

Predictive maintenance, which has traditionally used anomaly detection methods on sensory data, is now being replaced by event-based techniques. These methods utilise events with multiple temporal (and often non-numeric) features, produced by diagnostic modules. This raises the need of learning numerical event representations to predict the next fault event in industrial machines, specially vehicles, that use Diagnostic Trouble Codes (DTCs). We propose a predictive maintenance approach, named Sequential Multivariate Fault Prediction (SMFP), for predicting the next multivariate DTC fault in an event sequence, using Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTMs) and jointly learned event embeddings. By performing an in-depth comparison of different architectural choices and contextual preprocessing techniques, we provide an initial baseline for SMFP that achieves top-3 accuracy of 63% on predicting multivariate fault with 3 collective output layers, using vehicle maintenance data as a case study.