Sustainability of the Federal Budget and Fiscal Policy Possibilities in the Short Term

Abstract

The results of the execution of the federal budget in 2022 showed that the restrictions imposed had a significant impact on the dynamics and structure of revenues, the volume of unplanned spending, and the federal budget deficit. In this regard, a detailed analysis of the existing mechanisms and instruments of fiscal policy is needed to develop solutions that will help maintain the sustainability of the federal budget and mitigate the consequences of sanctions and retaliatory measures for the Russian economy. The paper presents an econometric model of the relationship between the stability coefficient of federal budget revenues to GDP fluctuations and the onset of crises and subsequent recessions. The estimation shows that there is a statistically significant relationship between the onset of the crisis and a deeper drop in the growth rate of federal budget revenues in comparison with periods of stability or growth. There are considered innovations in the fiscal sphere aimed at increasing federal budget revenues. The author concludes that there are risks and consequences of the proposed changes. The directions for the development of some tax instruments in the context of maintaining the stability of the federal budget and stabilizing the economic dynamics in the country are proposed.