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The Southern Vector in the Spatial Development of Post-Soviet Russia: the Main Factors and Manifestations 后苏联俄罗斯空间发展中的南方矢量:主要因素与表现
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-15 DOI: 10.21686/2073-1051-2023-2-5-26
A. Druzhinin, O. Kuznetsova
Modern geopolitical and geo-economic processes are accompanied by a radical transformation of the determinants and trends of the spatial organization of Russian society, initiating a revision of the previously established system of regional balances and priorities, sometimes interpreted and discussed as geographically oriented (in the logic of the rhumb approach) vectors of the country’s development. The article is devoted to the southern vector, its dynamics, as well as multidimensional factors and manifestation characteristic of the post-Soviet period. The geopolitical (including ethnopolitical) and foreign economic (transport, logistics and agro-industrial) prerequisites for the growing importance of the territories of its south (South of Russia) for the Russian Federation are identified. The scale is revealed and the specific territorial effects (and problems) of the trend shift of demographic and partly economic potential in favor of the southern regions of the country (in fact, three dozen of the largest southern Russian cities and agglomerations formed on their basis) are evaluated. The steadily continuing importance of the southern vector in the system of federal regulation is emphasized (with a relay race of focused priorities: the Chechen Republic – Krasnodar Krai – the subjects of the Crimea – the new regions of the Russian Federation).
现代地缘政治和地缘经济进程伴随着俄罗斯社会空间组织的决定因素和趋势的根本转变,启动了对先前建立的区域平衡和优先事项系统的修订,有时被解释和讨论为国家发展的地理导向(在逻辑上)向量。本文探讨了后苏联时期南方矢量及其动态,以及南方矢量的多维因素和表现特征。确定了其南部(俄罗斯南部)领土对俄罗斯联邦日益重要的地缘政治(包括民族政治)和外国经济(运输,物流和农工)先决条件。揭示了规模,并评估了人口和部分经济潜力倾向于该国南部地区的趋势转变的具体领土效应(和问题)(事实上,在其基础上形成的俄罗斯南部最大的三十个城市和城市群)。强调了南部地区在联邦监管体系中持续稳定的重要性(重点优先事项的接力赛:车臣共和国-克拉斯诺达尔边疆区-克里米亚主体-俄罗斯联邦的新地区)。
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引用次数: 0
Implementation of Social Programs in Conditions of Increasing Labor Precarization: Regional Aspects on the Example of the USA 劳动不稳定加剧条件下社会项目的实施:以美国为例的区域层面
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-15 DOI: 10.21686/2073-1051-2023-2-139-160
V. Minat
The current complex phenomenon of labor precarization has been extremely actively developed in the United States of America, especially over the past two decades. Undoubtedly, the main reason for the increase in the share of the precariat in the labor market is economic development based on a change in technological patterns, which is characterized in the capitalist economy, on the one hand, by an increase in the role of human capital, and on the other hand, by its overconcentration, including at the intra-country regional level. The emergence and development of a new form of labor relations invariably leads to the need to revise social policy. The regional aspects of the implementation of social programs considered in this paper, which are to some extent capable of mitigating the consequences of the instability of employment and the insecurity of labor relations in the United States for the period 2007–2020, serve as one of the explanations for the intensifying processes of regionalization observed in the country. The result of the study was the identification of two main aspects of the implementation of social programs at the level of subregions and individual states of the country. The first reflects the further regionalization of federal relations in terms of social support for the population, carried out without taking into account the growing precarization of labor in regions with the largest share of the precariat among the employed. The second aspect, which takes into account the structural features of the distribution of funding in the areas of education, health care and social protection of the population, reveals the authorities’ attempt to carry out balanced social programming in the subregions that are potential centers of the “new industrialization” of the American economy. This approach is aimed at preserving and qualitatively developing the human capital of the region by smoothing out the negative consequences of labor precarization.
当前复杂的劳动不稳定现象在美国得到了极其积极的发展,特别是在过去的二十年里。毫无疑问,劳动力市场中无业游民比例增加的主要原因是基于技术模式变化的经济发展,这是资本主义经济的特征,一方面是人力资本作用的增加,另一方面是人力资本的过度集中,包括在国家内部区域层面。一种新型劳动关系的出现和发展,必然导致对社会政策的修改。本文所考虑的社会项目实施的区域方面,在某种程度上能够减轻2007-2020年期间美国就业不稳定和劳动关系不安全的后果,可以作为在该国观察到的区域化进程加剧的解释之一。这项研究的结果是确定了在分区域和该国个别州一级执行社会方案的两个主要方面。第一个方面反映了联邦关系在对人口的社会支持方面的进一步区域化,而在进行这种区域化时没有考虑到在就业人口中不稳定人口比例最大的地区,劳动力日益不稳定。第二个方面考虑到教育、保健和人口社会保护领域资金分配的结构特点,表明当局试图在作为美国经济"新工业化"潜在中心的分区域执行平衡的社会方案。这种方法的目的是通过消除劳动不稳定的负面后果来保护和定性地发展该地区的人力资本。
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引用次数: 0
Preferential Territories in the Spatial Development of the Russian Federation 俄罗斯联邦空间发展中的优惠领土
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-15 DOI: 10.21686/2073-1051-2023-2-27-46
A. Odintsova
The spatial development strategy includes many components aimed, on the one hand, at ensuring the balanced development of the regions of the Russian Federation. On the other hand, it is aimed at the formation of preferential mechanisms for territories that particularly require investment and are characterized by negative development trends. The world has accumulated a lot of experience in the functioning of such mechanisms, which allows us to formulate their basic principles and orientation within the framework of the spatial development of a modern state. The article analyzes the main objectives of creating territories with special economic regimes, as well as problems that require attention when coordinating the policy of development of preferential zones, on the one hand, and spatial development in general, on the other. Examples of creation and functioning of preferential territories in different countries of the world are considered. The main stages in the regulation of such territories in Russia are highlighted, as well as the problems that exist on the way of their institutionalization.
空间发展战略包括许多组成部分,一方面旨在确保俄罗斯联邦各地区的均衡发展。另一方面,它的目的是为特别需要投资和具有消极发展趋势的领土建立优惠机制。世界在这些机制的运作方面积累了大量的经验,这使我们能够在现代国家空间发展的框架内制定它们的基本原则和方向。本文分析了创建具有特殊经济制度的领土的主要目标,以及在协调特惠区发展政策和总体空间发展时需要注意的问题。审议了在世界不同国家建立和运作优惠领土的例子。重点介绍了俄罗斯对此类领土进行监管的主要阶段,以及在其制度化的道路上存在的问题。
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引用次数: 0
The First Quarter of 2023 for the Consolidated Budgetsof the Subjects of the Russian Federation: Emerging Trends and New Conditions 2023年第一季度俄罗斯联邦各主体综合预算:新趋势和新情况
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-15 DOI: 10.21686/2073-1051-2023-2-103-120
L. Lykova
At the beginning of the year, the consolidated budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation were executed in conditions of continued sanctions pressure on the regional economy. Organizational and administrative innovations had a significant impact on the process of budget revenue formation (enactment of payment of taxes using a single tax account, cancellation of income tax payment within consolidated groups of taxpayers, introduction of an accelerated procedure for reimbursement of personal income tax). The growth of regional budget revenues in real terms was provided by federal transfers. Tax revenues grew only nominally. The increase in corporate income tax receipts did not compensate for the reduction in personal income tax receipts. Expenditures of regional budgets grew at a higher rate than revenues, which led to a reduction in the total amount of the positive balance of the consolidated budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation in most regions. The trend towards an increase in the volume of state and municipal debt has continued with an outstripping growth in the volume of budget loans. There is a substitution of market forms of borrowing for budgetary ones as compensation for the existing inefficient model of distribution of tax powers.
今年年初,俄罗斯联邦各主体的综合预算是在区域经济继续受到制裁压力的情况下执行的。组织和行政创新对预算收入形成过程产生了重大影响(规定使用单一税收帐户纳税,在合并的纳税人集团内取消所得税缴纳,采用加速偿还个人所得税的程序)。按实际价值计算,区域预算收入的增长是由联邦转移支付提供的。税收收入只是名义上的增长。企业所得税收入的增加并没有弥补个人所得税收入的减少。区域预算支出的增长速度高于收入的增长速度,这导致俄罗斯联邦各主体在大多数区域的综合预算的正余额总额减少。州和市政债务数量增加的趋势仍在继续,预算贷款数量的增长超过了预算贷款的增长。市场形式的借款可以替代预算形式的借款,作为对现有低效的税收权力分配模式的补偿。
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引用次数: 0
Key Performance Indicators for the Implementation of Strategic Plans 战略计划实施的关键绩效指标
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-15 DOI: 10.21686/2073-1051-2023-2-92-102
L. Tchaikovsky
The effective functioning of organizations is directly related to the strategic changes that are carried out using the strategic planning system. The importance of strategic planning today is due, first of all, to a dynamic external environment, a high level of competition, and the need to have a strategic plan to achieve ultimate goals. Strategic planning is especially important in large organizations, as it determines the direction of their development and identifies activities that contribute to the achievement of the organization’s goals. At the same time, the following should be singled out as the most important tasks in choosing the direction of effective development of the organization: the development of a strategic vision and mission of the organization, setting goals and choosing the strategy itself. However, strategic planning should not be confused with planning, as strategic planning is the work on a coherent set of decisions that determine the place of an organization in its industry in order to create competitive advantage and sustainable profits. In turn, the correct alignment of the strategy of organizations will have a positive impact on regional incomes and, as a result, on filling the budget of the region and ensuring employment at its level. In general, strategic planning is high on the priority list of organizations that have faced strong pressure to adapt to the ever-changing environment around them, including factors such as new generations of technology, changing rules, market fluctuations and more agile competitors. As a result, one can imagine such a system of strategic planning in an organization that contributes to the achievement of its goals and provides competitive advantages. The article is devoted to the peculiarities of strategic planning and its role in the effective functioning of the organization. The article also discusses the reasons for the increased attention to the practice of strategic planning only from federal, but also from regional authorities. In addition, the article discusses performance indicators as a convenient tool for assessing and planning the organization’s activities, which form the basis of the strategic planning system.
组织的有效运作直接关系到利用战略规划系统进行的战略变革。今天战略规划的重要性,首先是由于一个动态的外部环境,高水平的竞争,需要有一个战略计划,以实现最终目标。战略规划在大型组织中尤为重要,因为它决定了组织的发展方向,并确定了有助于实现组织目标的活动。同时,在选择组织的有效发展方向时,应该挑出以下几点作为最重要的任务:制定组织的战略愿景和使命,设定目标和选择战略本身。然而,战略规划不应该与计划相混淆,因为战略规划是一套连贯的决策,决定了一个组织在其行业中的位置,以创造竞争优势和可持续的利润。反过来,组织战略的正确调整将对地区收入产生积极影响,从而填补该地区的预算并确保其水平的就业。总的来说,对于那些面临巨大压力以适应周围不断变化的环境(包括新一代技术、不断变化的规则、市场波动和更敏捷的竞争对手等因素)的组织来说,战略规划是优先考虑的事项。因此,我们可以想象在一个组织中有这样一个战略规划系统,它有助于实现其目标并提供竞争优势。本文致力于战略规划的特点及其在组织有效运作中的作用。文章还讨论了战略规划实践不仅受到联邦政府的重视,而且也受到地方当局的重视的原因。此外,本文还讨论了绩效指标作为评估和规划组织活动的便利工具,它构成了战略规划系统的基础。
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引用次数: 0
Areas of Assessment and Regional Differences in the Volume and Qualitative Structure of the Housing Market in Russia 评估领域和区域差异在俄罗斯住房市场的数量和质量结构
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-15 DOI: 10.21686/2073-1051-2023-2-66-91
S. Bychkova, A. Dukhon, O. Obraztsova, N. Epshtein
Residential real estate is one of the most important types of assets, the lack of which becomes impossible the existence and development of the economy. For an entire sector of households, dwellings are not only a source of livelihood, but also determine the cost of living. Moreover, in the 2008 SNA Manual the production of housing services by homeowners for their own consumption is included in the production boundary (as in earlier versions of the UN SNA). This once again emphasizes the importance of studying the housing stock as the most important basis for the real estate market. In addition, the volume, dynamics and structure of the housing stock in various areas of classification is an important factor in the formation of the real estate market, its object-by-object basis, as well as the development of the activities of the subjects of this market. The above considerations determined the relevance of studying the composition and structure of the housing stock of the Russian Federation, including regional differences in the housing stock in the context of a complex of classification features.
住宅房地产是我国最重要的资产类型之一,没有住宅房地产,经济就无法生存和发展。对于整个家庭来说,住房不仅是生计的来源,而且还决定着生活成本。此外,在2008年国民核算体系手册中,业主为自己消费而提供的住房服务的生产被列入生产边界(与早期版本的联合国国民核算体系一样)。这再次强调了研究住房存量作为房地产市场最重要依据的重要性。此外,各个分类地区的存量住房的数量、动态和结构是房地产市场形成的重要因素,它的对象对对象的基础,以及这个市场主体活动的发展。上述考虑决定了研究俄罗斯联邦住房存量的组成和结构的相关性,包括在分类特征复杂的背景下研究住房存量的区域差异。
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引用次数: 0
Fiscal and Tax Policy Response to New Challenges and Budget Performance in the First Quarter of 2023 2023年第一季度应对新挑战的财税政策和预算绩效
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-15 DOI: 10.21686/2073-1051-2023-2-121-138
I. S. Bukina
The beginning of 2023 allows us to draw the first results of the Russian economy response to the impact of external and internal shocks in 2022. The structure of the Russian economy remains relatively stable, many catastrophic forecasts have not materialized. However, the sanctions that have come into force and the rapid measures of the anti-crisis policy pose a threat to fiscal stability. The main burden falls on the federal budget, but in the medium term, the depletion of federal reserves will also affect the state of the regional budgets. The paper analyzes the dynamics of indicators of the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation and the budgets of state off-budget funds, as well as separately – the federal budget. In conditions of limited access to data on budget execution, some conclusions are hypotheses and assumptions. In addition, the statistics were distorted by the introduction of the unified tax payment mechanism. The paper distinguishes between the mechanism of the impact of temporary and permanent exogenous shocks. The response of fiscal policy is considered in the context of the division of measures into temporary and structural changes, and appropriate recommendations are given.
2023年初,我们可以得出俄罗斯经济应对2022年外部和内部冲击影响的第一批结果。俄罗斯经济结构保持相对稳定,许多灾难性的预测并未成为现实。然而,已生效的制裁和迅速采取的反危机政策措施对财政稳定构成了威胁。主要负担落在联邦预算上,但在中期,联邦储备的枯竭也将影响地区预算的状况。本文分析了俄罗斯联邦综合预算和国家预算外基金预算以及单独的联邦预算指标的动态。在获得预算执行数据有限的情况下,一些结论是假设和假设。此外,由于引入了统一的纳税机制,统计数据被扭曲了。本文区分了临时外生冲击和永久外生冲击的影响机制。财政政策的反应是在将措施分为暂时性和结构性变化的背景下考虑的,并提出了适当的建议。
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引用次数: 0
Forecasting the Costs for Adapting the Housing Stock to Changing Permafrost Conditions (the Case of Norilsk) 预测住房存量适应不断变化的永久冻土条件的成本(以诺里尔斯克为例)
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-15 DOI: 10.21686/2073-1051-2023-2-47-65
Геокриологическим Условиям, НА Примере Норильска
The problem of predicting the socio-economic consequences of permafrost degradation due to climate change is an important area of modern scientific research. At the moment, there are no unified approaches and methods for assessing this type of natural risk, respectively, there is no reliable idea of the scale of possible consequences, which in turn is manifested in the poor elaboration of the issue in strategic planning documents for permafrost areas. The city of Norilsk (Krasnoyarsk krai) is an example of an Arctic city in Russia, located in the permafrost zone, where active work has begun on the housing stock renovation, including due to problems associated with the degradation of permafrost under the influence of anthropogenic and climatic factors. An analysis of legal documents related to the socioeconomic development of the city, renovation plans and documents aimed at solving the problem of replacing the deformed housing stock showed that the scale of measures does not fully correspond to the severity of the problem. A comparison of the key characteristics of the Norilsk housing stock, taking into account its current state and plans for transformation, with a long-term forecast of changes in engineering and cryological conditions until 2050, made it possible to estimate the total costs of adaptation, which can reach 1.6 trillion rubles in 2023 prices. In addition, a rating of Russian Arctic municipalities was compiled, based on the ratio of indicators characterizing internal adaptive capabilities to changing geocryological conditions and the amount of expected damage to the buildings and structures. It was found that, in general, the scale of the likely consequences significantly exceeds the available resources, and the most negative situation is already developing in the most depressed areas.
预测气候变化引起的永久冻土退化的社会经济后果是现代科学研究的一个重要领域。目前,没有统一的方法和方法来评估这类自然风险,也没有关于可能后果的规模的可靠想法,这反过来又体现在多年冻土区战略规划文件中对这一问题的阐述不足。诺里尔斯克市(克拉斯诺亚尔斯克边疆区)是俄罗斯北极城市的一个例子,位于永久冻土带,由于人为和气候因素的影响,永久冻土带退化的问题,正在积极开展住房存量改造工作。通过对与城市社会经济发展相关的法律文件、旨在解决存量畸形房置换问题的改造规划和文件进行分析,发现措施的规模与问题的严重程度并不完全对应。将诺里尔斯克住房存量的主要特征进行比较,考虑到其现状和改造计划,并对2050年之前的工程和低温条件变化进行长期预测,从而可以估计适应的总成本,按2023年的价格计算,这一成本可能达到1.6万亿卢布。此外,根据表征内部适应变化的地质条件的能力和建筑物和结构的预期损害程度的指标的比率,编制了俄罗斯北极城市的评级。人们发现,一般来说,可能的后果的规模大大超过了现有的资源,最不利的情况已经在最贫穷的地区出现。
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引用次数: 0
Trends in the Development of the Subjects of the Russian Federation under Sanctions 制裁下俄罗斯联邦主体的发展趋势
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-15 DOI: 10.21686/2073-1051-2023-2-161-196
S. Valentey, A. Bakhtizin, S. Borisova, A. V. Kol’chugina, L. Lykova
For the period from 2020 to the present, both the domestic economy and the economies of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation have been subjected to two shocks. The shock caused by COVID-19 and the shock caused by the sanctions policy against Russia. As our research has shown, regional economies have relatively successfully overcome the negative consequences of the pandemic, suffering fewer losses than initially hypothetically predicted. An attempt to determine the degree of negative consequences of sanctions at the regional level is made in this article. At the same time, the authors understand that the problem requires further research, because, firstly, the impact of covid and post-covid restrictions on the national and regional economies has not been completely overcome. Secondly, since sanctions were introduced (and are being introduced) not simultaneously, but incrementally, they affect (and will affect) regional economies with different industry specialization of enterprises in different ways.
从2020年至今,国内经济和俄罗斯联邦各组成实体的经济都遭受了两次冲击。新冠疫情带来的冲击和对俄制裁政策带来的冲击。正如我们的研究表明的那样,区域经济相对成功地克服了大流行的负面后果,遭受的损失比最初假设的预测要少。本文试图确定制裁在区域一级造成的消极后果的程度。与此同时,作者明白,这个问题需要进一步研究,因为,首先,covid和后covid限制对国家和区域经济的影响尚未完全克服。第二,由于制裁不是同时实施的(和正在实施的),而是逐步实施的,它们以不同的方式影响(并将影响)具有不同行业专业化企业的区域经济。
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引用次数: 1
The Role of Withdrawing Foreign Companies in the Economy of Russian Regions 外国公司的退出在俄罗斯地区经济中的作用
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-15 DOI: 10.21686/2073-1051-2023-2-197-219
R. Bobrovskiy
The article analyzes the role of foreign companies that announced their withdrawal from Russia after 2022 in the economy of the country as a whole, its industries and regions. The role of withdrawing foreign companies in industry is examined in more detail. The existing list of withdrawing foreign companies forms the basis of the analysis.Russian legal entities related with these foreign companies were selected. The financial indicators of these legal entities has been aggregated and compared with official statistics. The highest role of withdrawing foreign companies among sectors of the economy in the manufacturing industry and consumer and science-intensive services. Among industrial sectors – is in automotive, paper, tobacco and beverages industries, wood processing and some sub-sectors of mechanical engineering. In the regional context, the highest role of withdrawing foreign companies is in two types of regions: the largest cities and the automotive and wood processing regions. The withdrawal of foreign companies from the largest cities will affect previously on the technological development of industries and the economy as a whole. In the automotive and wood processing regions, the withdrawal of foreign companies is most critical for labor markets, especially if the region’s economy is small and undiversified.
文章分析了2022年后宣布退出俄罗斯的外国企业对俄罗斯整体经济、产业和地区的影响。更详细地研究了撤出外国公司在工业中的作用。现有的退出外国公司名单构成了分析的基础。与这些外国公司有关的俄罗斯法律实体被选中。这些法律实体的财务指标已被汇总并与官方统计数字进行比较。在制造业、消费和科学密集型服务业等经济部门中,撤出外国公司的作用最大。在工业部门中-是在汽车,造纸,烟草和饮料行业,木材加工和机械工程的一些子行业。在区域范围内,撤出的外国公司在两类区域的作用最大:最大的城市和汽车和木材加工区域。外国公司从大城市撤出将对工业和整个经济的技术发展产生影响。在汽车和木材加工地区,外国公司的退出对劳动力市场来说是最关键的,特别是如果该地区的经济规模小且多元化程度低的话。
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引用次数: 0
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