{"title":"Hungary's inflationary exposures to global price movements","authors":"Krisztián Koppány, Péter Vakhal, Pál Pusztai","doi":"10.1556/204.2023.00015","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates Hungary's inflationary exposures to global price movements using a simple cost-push input-output price model and a database of inflation-to-output price elasticities (Global Inflation-to-Output Price Elasticity Database, GIOPED) developed on the basis of the OECD's Inter-Country Input-Output Tables. Inflation elasticities are decomposed into local, simple, and complex global value chain effects by applying Wang's decomposition scheme (Wang et al. 2017) to price movements and inflation. Our empirical analysis based on GIOPED elasticities shows that Hungary is highly exposed to global value chain price transmissions originating in Germany, Austria, and Russia; and in particular to changes in energy prices. The crude oil and natural gas price boom and the resulting energy crises caused a significant increase in consumer price levels in Hungary; however, this explains only a fraction of current inflation rates.","PeriodicalId":40049,"journal":{"name":"Society and Economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Society and Economy","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1556/204.2023.00015","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"Social Sciences","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Abstract
This paper investigates Hungary's inflationary exposures to global price movements using a simple cost-push input-output price model and a database of inflation-to-output price elasticities (Global Inflation-to-Output Price Elasticity Database, GIOPED) developed on the basis of the OECD's Inter-Country Input-Output Tables. Inflation elasticities are decomposed into local, simple, and complex global value chain effects by applying Wang's decomposition scheme (Wang et al. 2017) to price movements and inflation. Our empirical analysis based on GIOPED elasticities shows that Hungary is highly exposed to global value chain price transmissions originating in Germany, Austria, and Russia; and in particular to changes in energy prices. The crude oil and natural gas price boom and the resulting energy crises caused a significant increase in consumer price levels in Hungary; however, this explains only a fraction of current inflation rates.
本文使用一个简单的成本推动型投入产出价格模型和一个基于经合组织国家间投入产出表开发的通胀对产出价格弹性数据库(全球通胀对产出价格弹性数据库，giped)来研究匈牙利对全球价格变动的通胀风险。通过将Wang的分解方案(Wang et al. 2017)应用于价格变动和通胀，将通胀弹性分解为局部、简单和复杂的全球价值链效应。我们基于giped弹性的实证分析表明，匈牙利高度暴露于德国、奥地利和俄罗斯的全球价值链价格传导;尤其是能源价格的变化。原油和天然气价格暴涨以及由此引发的能源危机导致匈牙利消费价格水平显著上升;然而，这只能解释当前通胀率的一小部分。
期刊介绍：
The double-blind peer-reviewed journal publishes original research articles and book reviews in the fields of economics, social sciences, and business studies, which address social and economic issues in Central and Eastern Europe or have relevance for social and economic development in this region. While it welcomes articles from the international academic community, Society and Economy seeks in particular to provide an international forum for scholars working in the research traditions of this region. The journal welcomes submissions of high-quality and multi-disciplinary articles that address social, demographic, political, economic and industrial trends and challenges. Society and Economy is a gold open access journal since 2019 but authors are not requested to pay an article processing fee.
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