Procrustes Analysis of Indonesian Mortality Table Iv and Indonesia's Death Rate During Covid-19 Pandemic

Abstract

The level of accuracy to calculate the premium is one of the main points for an actuary to determine the criteria of product which is offered by an insurance company to customers. The main reference in this accuracy is the mortality table. The last mortality table made by AAJI (Asosiasi Asuransi Jiwa Indonesia) was Mortality Table Indonesia (MTI) IV which was published in 2019. However, unexpectedly, the Covid-19 pandemic occurred in early 2020 which caused the death rate to be higher than normal situation. This study aims to compare MTI IV which was made with assumptions before the Covid-19 pandemic according to the death rate in Indonesia during the Covid-19 pandemic. This study uses secondary data, by finding the probability of death in Indonesia by calculating the death rate in Indonesia based on population data according to age group classifications obtained from BPS (Badan Pusat Statistik) Indonesia. Furthermore, both data were compared using Procrustes analysis to calculated the level of conformity. The results showed that 75.97% of the data matched MTI IV with the death rate during the pandemic. If the insurance company wants more accurate results, they can be adjusted to the Indonesian Mortality Table using data during the pandemic. If it is quite satisfied with the accuracy of 75.97%, the company can continue to use MTI IV.