Estimation of epidemiological parameters for historicalm ship outbreaks of influenza

Praveen Kumar, Anjali Kshirsagar, P. Shil
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Periodic Influenza epidemics are a cause of concern world-wide due to heavy burden of disease consequently leading to economic distress mortality. In modern era, rapid international travel between populations makes the impact of air-borne diseases like Influenza more dramatic, as observed in the last pandemic due to Swine origin Influenza A/H1N1 2009. Though transmission of Influenza in humans has been studied in various settings, studies on ship outbreaks are sparse. The current research aims to analyze the historical Influenza outbreaks on sailing ships. Study revealed the pattern of transmission in isolated population and estimates the epidemiological parameters viz. basic reproduction number (R0), epidemic growth rate (r), transmission rate (β). High clustering lead to intense transmission with 0 high value of basic reproductive number, R0. Also, the study brought to light the limitations of analyzing 0 historical data.
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历史上船舶流感暴发流行病学参数的估计
周期性流感流行是引起全世界关注的一个原因,因为它造成沉重的疾病负担,从而导致经济困难和死亡。在现代,人群之间的快速国际旅行使流感等空气传播疾病的影响更加严重,正如2009年猪源性甲型H1N1流感引起的上次大流行所观察到的那样。虽然在各种情况下研究了流感在人类中的传播,但对船舶疫情的研究很少。本研究旨在分析历史上帆船上的流感疫情。研究揭示了隔离人群的传播模式,并估计了基本繁殖数(R0)、流行增长率(r)、传播率(β)等流行病学参数。聚类高,传播强度大,基本繁殖数R0值高。同时,该研究也揭示了历史数据分析的局限性。
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