The Mathematical Model of Forecasting the Price Level in the Regional Market of Residential Real Estate

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to develop a mathematical model for estimating the value of a real estate object, taking into account the trends in the residential real estate market using indicators of the object’s state and indicators of the real estate market. The real estate market is a complex mechanism that includes subjects, objects, processes and infrastructure. The real estate market has its own characteristics that distinguish it from the market of goods and services related to the duality of real estate, its special characteristics. Despite the high conservatism, there are certain innovative trends in the development of the residential real estate market (innovations in construction, architecture, services and marketing, logistics, customer focus). The article considers the residential real estate market as a complex socio-technical system, to predict the development of which it is advisable to use a combination of classical forecasting methods and soft computing or intelligent data processing methods. A forecast of the development of the residential real estate services market was made using foresight technologies (industry roadmap). The analysis was carried out and the main factors acting on the market were identified, and their influence on the development of market trends was determined. A mathematical model for predicting the value of residential real estate based on the theory of fuzzy sets has been developed.