Geopolitical risk and uncertainty: how transnational corporations can use scenario planning for strategic resilience

Abstract

Abstract This article shows conceptually how scenario planning method can be used in corporate strategy-making by considering both risks and uncertainties. Risk assessments can be used as foundation for trends shaping transnational corporations which form basic assumptions for scenarios. Uncertainties are key drivers of geopolitical developments in which combination alternative scenarios emerge. Various geopolitical scenarios developed by different foresight teams and ranging from direct war to conditional cooperation are outlined in the article. Most importantly, implications of these scenarios are explored for transnational corporations with particular focus on improving strategic resilience.