Kai Yang, Qingqing Zhang, Xinyang Yu, Xiaogang Dong
{"title":"Bayesian inference for a mixture double autoregressive model","authors":"Kai Yang, Qingqing Zhang, Xinyang Yu, Xiaogang Dong","doi":"10.1111/stan.12281","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper considers a mixture double autoregressive model with two components, which can flexibly capture the features usually exhibited by many financial returns such as heteroscedasticity, large kurtosis and multimodal marginals. Bayesian method based on modern Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technology is used to estimate the model parameters. The heteroscedasticity test problem for the underlying process is also addressed by means of Bayes factor. The performances of the proposed methods are evaluated via some simulations. It is shown that the MCMC algorithm is an effective tool to deal with the mixture model. Finally, the proposed model is applied to the S&P500 index data.set.","PeriodicalId":51178,"journal":{"name":"Statistica Neerlandica","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4000,"publicationDate":"2022-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Statistica Neerlandica","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1111/stan.12281","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"STATISTICS & PROBABILITY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Abstract
This paper considers a mixture double autoregressive model with two components, which can flexibly capture the features usually exhibited by many financial returns such as heteroscedasticity, large kurtosis and multimodal marginals. Bayesian method based on modern Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technology is used to estimate the model parameters. The heteroscedasticity test problem for the underlying process is also addressed by means of Bayes factor. The performances of the proposed methods are evaluated via some simulations. It is shown that the MCMC algorithm is an effective tool to deal with the mixture model. Finally, the proposed model is applied to the S&P500 index data.set.
期刊介绍：
Statistica Neerlandica has been the journal of the Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research since 1946. It covers all areas of statistics, from theoretical to applied, with a special emphasis on mathematical statistics, statistics for the behavioural sciences and biostatistics. This wide scope is reflected by the expertise of the journal’s editors representing these areas. The diverse editorial board is committed to a fast and fair reviewing process, and will judge submissions on quality, correctness, relevance and originality. Statistica Neerlandica encourages transparency and reproducibility, and offers online resources to make data, code, simulation results and other additional materials publicly available.
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