Scenario analysis of stampede accidents in scenic spots

L. Hua, Li Linqian, Yijing Peng
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

In order to improve emergency management and control ability of huge crowds in scenic spotsꎬ a combination of scenario analysis and dynamic Bayesian network was used to study evolution process of stampede accidents. Situation stateꎬ disaster ̄causing bodyꎬ disaster ̄bearing body and driving factors were selected as key elements to explore law and path of accident scenario evolution. Thenꎬ the dynamic Bayesian network was used to construct a scenario network of huge crowd stampede incidentsꎬ and development trend of the scene was deduced by using situation state probability. The results show that scenarios with high risk of accidents are population fallꎬ crowd stalemateꎬ population flow increase and crowd gathering in turn. And the major reasons for them are interventions of corresponding driving factors such as inadequate preparation for preventionꎬ inadequate security management of scenic spotsꎬ imperfect human flow monitoring equipment and crowd diversion facilities.
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景区踩踏事故情景分析
为了提高景区庞大人群的应急管理和控制能力ꎬ,采用情景分析和动态贝叶斯网络相结合的方法研究了踩踏事故的演化过程。选取情景状态ꎬ致灾体ꎬ承灾体和驱动因素为关键要素,探索事故情景演变规律和路径。然后利用动态贝叶斯网络ꎬ构建了大型人群踩踏事件情景网络ꎬ,并利用情景状态概率推导了场景的发展趋势。结果表明:人口下降ꎬ人群僵持ꎬ人口流动增加和人群依次聚集是交通事故高风险情景。其主要原因是防范准备不充分ꎬ景区安全管理不到位ꎬ人流监测设备和人流分流设施不完善等相应驱动因素的干预。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.30
自引率
0.00%
发文量
8733
期刊介绍: China Safety Science Journal is administered by China Association for Science and Technology and sponsored by China Occupational Safety and Health Association (formerly China Society of Science and Technology for Labor Protection). It was first published on January 20, 1991 and was approved for public distribution at home and abroad. China Safety Science Journal (CN 11-2865/X ISSN 1003-3033 CODEN ZAKXAM) is a monthly magazine, 12 issues a year, large 16 folo, the domestic price of each book is 40.00 yuan, the annual price is 480.00 yuan. Mailing code 82-454. Honors: Scopus database includes journals in the field of safety science of high-quality scientific journals classification catalog T1 level National Chinese core journals China Science and technology core journals CSCD journals The United States "Chemical Abstracts" search included the United States "Cambridge Scientific Abstracts: Materials Information" search included
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