{"title":"Scenario analysis of stampede accidents in scenic spots","authors":"L. Hua, Li Linqian, Yijing Peng","doi":"10.16265/J.CNKI.ISSN1003-3033.2020.04.017","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In order to improve emergency management and control ability of huge crowds in scenic spotsꎬ a combination of scenario analysis and dynamic Bayesian network was used to study evolution process of stampede accidents. Situation stateꎬ disaster ̄causing bodyꎬ disaster ̄bearing body and driving factors were selected as key elements to explore law and path of accident scenario evolution. Thenꎬ the dynamic Bayesian network was used to construct a scenario network of huge crowd stampede incidentsꎬ and development trend of the scene was deduced by using situation state probability. The results show that scenarios with high risk of accidents are population fallꎬ crowd stalemateꎬ population flow increase and crowd gathering in turn. And the major reasons for them are interventions of corresponding driving factors such as inadequate preparation for preventionꎬ inadequate security management of scenic spotsꎬ imperfect human flow monitoring equipment and crowd diversion facilities.","PeriodicalId":9976,"journal":{"name":"中国安全科学学报","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2021-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"中国安全科学学报","FirstCategoryId":"1089","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.16265/J.CNKI.ISSN1003-3033.2020.04.017","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Abstract
In order to improve emergency management and control ability of huge crowds in scenic spotsꎬ a combination of scenario analysis and dynamic Bayesian network was used to study evolution process of stampede accidents. Situation stateꎬ disaster ̄causing bodyꎬ disaster ̄bearing body and driving factors were selected as key elements to explore law and path of accident scenario evolution. Thenꎬ the dynamic Bayesian network was used to construct a scenario network of huge crowd stampede incidentsꎬ and development trend of the scene was deduced by using situation state probability. The results show that scenarios with high risk of accidents are population fallꎬ crowd stalemateꎬ population flow increase and crowd gathering in turn. And the major reasons for them are interventions of corresponding driving factors such as inadequate preparation for preventionꎬ inadequate security management of scenic spotsꎬ imperfect human flow monitoring equipment and crowd diversion facilities.
期刊介绍:
China Safety Science Journal is administered by China Association for Science and Technology and sponsored by China Occupational Safety and Health Association (formerly China Society of Science and Technology for Labor Protection). It was first published on January 20, 1991 and was approved for public distribution at home and abroad.
China Safety Science Journal (CN 11-2865/X ISSN 1003-3033 CODEN ZAKXAM) is a monthly magazine, 12 issues a year, large 16 folo, the domestic price of each book is 40.00 yuan, the annual price is 480.00 yuan. Mailing code 82-454.
Honors:
Scopus database includes journals in the field of safety science of high-quality scientific journals classification catalog T1 level
National Chinese core journals China Science and technology core journals CSCD journals
The United States "Chemical Abstracts" search included the United States "Cambridge Scientific Abstracts: Materials Information" search included