Regional Alliance Structure and International Conflict

Q3 Social Sciences World Political Science Pub Date : 2019-05-01 DOI:10.1515/wps-2019-0002
Kentaro Sakuwa
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Abstract

Abstract Why are some regions more peaceful than others? Some regions are particularly plagued by traditional power politics and political tensions, while the danger of war between major actors has significantly declined in other regions. The conventional literature would answer the question from a dyadic perspective—a region with many states with certain set of traits, such as democracy, should be peaceful. However, it is ultimately an empirical question whether the prevalence of power politics and conflict can be solely explained by the type of states and dyads in a region. I argue that the nature of international interactions is shaped by regional-level environment. Due to local security externalities, dyadic politics and conflict is dependent on conditions in a local neighborhood. More specifically, this study focuses on the role of regional-level alliance structure. A region can be situated in various types of alliance configuration depending on global geopolitical climate. I argue that conflict is unlikely in a region in which a global power establishes hegemonic domination through alliance ties with local states. The presence of an external global power dominating a region provides a local enforcement mechanism and reassurance for local states, which in turn reduces hostile interactions among local states. To examine how the regional-level conditions influence dyadic-level politics among local states, this paper empirically analyzes political events data (Integrated Data for Events Analysis) applying multilevel modeling, aiming at contributing the literature by explicitly modeling the influence of regional-level variables on local politics beyond militarized disputes. Empirical analysis revealed that a regionally shared “patron” can promote peace between local states. However, the effect of regional hierarchy turned out to be indirect. Regional dominance structured by an external global power does not exert an overarching influence over an entire region by shifting the region-specific intercept. Rather, the regional-level global power domination in terms of defense pacts particularly influences powerful states in a region while not quite reducing hostility among “minor” local states. Thus, international conflict and hostility is indirectly constrained in a region under hegemonic domination by a global power. This study has empirically explored an argument that it is fruitful to go beyond a purely dyadic analysis of international conflict. The independent effect of a spatial environment means that even similar dyads may behave differently depending on the conditions surrounding them. It shows a need to reexamine some of the important findings about international conflict from a spatial perspective, taking into account macro-regional contexts within which states operate. Moreover, the introduction of regional contexts potentially bridges a gap between quantitative studies of international conflict and more area-specific studies.
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区域联盟结构与国际冲突
为什么有些地区比其他地区更和平?一些地区尤其受到传统强权政治和政治紧张局势的困扰,而其他地区主要行为体之间发生战争的危险已大大降低。传统的文献会从二元视角来回答这个问题——一个地区有许多国家,这些国家具有某种特征,比如民主,应该是和平的。然而,权力政治和冲突的盛行是否可以完全用一个地区的国家和二元类型来解释,这最终是一个实证问题。我认为,国际互动的性质是由区域层面的环境决定的。由于地方安全的外部性,二元政治和冲突依赖于当地社区的条件。更具体地说,本研究侧重于区域层面联盟结构的作用。根据全球地缘政治气候,一个地区可以处于不同类型的联盟结构中。我认为,在一个全球大国通过与当地国家的联盟关系建立霸权统治的地区,不太可能发生冲突。主导一个地区的外部全球力量的存在为地方国家提供了一种地方执行机制和保证,从而减少了地方国家之间的敌对互动。为了研究区域层面的条件如何影响地方国家之间的二元政治,本文运用多层次模型对政治事件数据(Integrated data for events Analysis)进行了实证分析,旨在通过明确建模区域层面变量对军事争端之外的地方政治的影响来贡献文献。实证分析表明,一个地区共享的“保护人”可以促进地方国家之间的和平。然而,区域等级的影响是间接的。由外部全球力量构建的地区主导地位不会通过改变特定地区的拦截来对整个地区施加总体影响。相反,就防务协议而言,地区层面的全球权力支配尤其会影响一个地区的强国,而不会完全减少“小”地方国家之间的敌意。因此,国际冲突和敌意在一个全球大国霸权统治下的地区受到间接限制。本研究从经验上探讨了一个论点,即超越对国际冲突的纯粹二元分析是富有成效的。空间环境的独立效应意味着,即使是相似的二联体也可能因周围环境的不同而表现不同。它表明有必要从空间角度重新审视一些关于国际冲突的重要发现,考虑到国家运作的宏观区域背景。此外,引入区域背景可能弥合国际冲突定量研究和更具体地区研究之间的差距。
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来源期刊
World Political Science
World Political Science Social Sciences-Political Science and International Relations
CiteScore
0.70
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0.00%
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0
期刊介绍: World Political Science (WPS) publishes translations of prize-winning articles nominated by prominent national political science associations and journals around the world. Scholars in a field as international as political science need to know about important political research produced outside the English-speaking world. Sponsored by the International Political Science Association (IPSA), the premiere global political science organization with membership from national assoications 50 countries worldwide WPS gathers together and translates an ever-increasing number of countries'' best political science articles, bridging the language barriers that have made this cutting-edge research inaccessible up to now. Articles in the World Political Science cover a wide range of subjects of interest to readers concerned with the systematic analysis of political issues facing national, sub-national and international governments and societies. Fields include Comparative Politics, International Relations, Political Sociology, Political Theory, Political Economy, and Public Administration and Policy. Anyone interested in the central issues of the day, whether they are students, policy makers, or other citizens, will benefit from greater familiarity with debates about the nature and solutions to social, economic and political problems carried on in non-English language forums.
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