Estimating Factors Influencing the Capacity of the Wide-Road-and-Narrow-Bridge Section Based on Random Forest

Abstract

In order to promote the modernisation process of rural roads and improve road capacity, the problem of bottleneck sections of rural roads needs to be solved urgently. The phenomenon of wide-road-and-narrow-bridge sections is particularly prominent in rural roads. Based on this, this paper analyses the degree of influence of roadway one-way lane width, bridge deck oneway lane width, motorised vehicles to non-motorised vehicles ratio, and road-bridge connection dimension on the capacity of the wide-road-and-narrow-bridge section based on the combination of VISSIM simulation and random forest algorithm. The result of the coefficient of determination (R2) of the random forest-based capacity prediction model shows that the random forest fits the data very well; the degree of influence on the capacity is in descending order of the bridge deck one-way lane width, motorised vehicles to non-motorised vehicles ratio, roadway one-way lane width and the road-bridge connection dimension. The model can, on the one hand, provide a reference for  improving the capacity of bottleneck sections of rural roads; on the other hand, it can provide decision value for the order of measures to be taken when rural roads are rebuilt and expanded, according to the order of importance.