Long-term transport decarbonization pathways in the European Union: a strategic energy-economy analysis

IF 3.1 4区工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy Pub Date : 2022-08-02 DOI:10.1080/15567249.2022.2101712

P. Siskos, I. Tsiropoulos, Panagiotis Karkatsoulis, P. Capros

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引用次数: 5

Abstract

ABSTRACT To reach climate neutrality by mid-century, the EU needs to decarbonize its transport sector. Transition options include electrification, biofuels, hydrogen, and e-fuels (synthetic fuels). Owing to their uncertain and disruptive role, we assess the potential contribution of e-fuels deployment to the EU transport decarbonization in line with the region’s climate neutrality ambition in 2050. To do so, we enhance the representation of competing fuels in the PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model. We quantify two contrasting transport scenarios: one with notable contribution from e-fuels, and a second scenario without e-fuels but with maximum use of the alternative options. Findings are arrayed in a Strengths-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats analysis. Electrification of private transport mobility in urban and sub-urban areas emerges as a key option in both pathways. However, the two scenarios differ in the other technology and fuel choices, with implications on road freight transport, infrastructure, R&D spending, and maturity requirements for alternative vehicles.

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欧盟长期运输脱碳路径:战略能源经济分析

为了在本世纪中叶达到气候中和，欧盟需要使其运输部门脱碳。转型选择包括电气化、生物燃料、氢和电子燃料(合成燃料)。鉴于其不确定性和破坏性作用，我们根据该地区2050年的气候中和目标，评估了电子燃料部署对欧盟运输脱碳的潜在贡献。为此，我们增强了PRIMES-TREMOVE运输模型中竞争燃料的表示。我们量化了两种截然不同的交通情景:一种是电子燃料的显著贡献，另一种是没有电子燃料但最大限度地利用替代方案的情景。结果以优势-劣势-机会-威胁分析的形式排列。城市和郊区私人交通的电气化成为这两条道路的关键选择。然而，这两种情况在其他技术和燃料选择上有所不同，这对公路货运、基础设施、研发支出和替代车辆的成熟度要求都有影响。

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来源期刊

Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy ENERGY & FUELS-

CiteScore

6.80

自引率

12.80%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

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