Pub Date : 2023-11-14DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2023.2274865
Huseyin Avni ES, Pınar Baban, Coskun Hamzacebi
ABSTRACTThe most important key to determining sustainable energy policies is reliable and accurate energy demand forecasting. Grey prediction, one of the demand forecasting methods, makes successful forecasts with limited data and without the need for any prior knowledge. In this study, GM (1,1) and Grey Verhulst from time series models and GM (1, N) model based on cause–effect relationship were used to forecast Türkiye’s natural gas demand. Dynamic grey forecasting models have been developed in order to obtain robust and reliable predictions. All developed models were evaluated according to performance criteria, and the superior model was obtained to be GM (1,5). Within the scope of the study, it was determined that models based on cause–effect relationship should be preferred instead of time series models. For this, population, the amount of electricity generated from natural gas, industrial production index, and building area are determined as independent variables. Three different scenarios were created taking into account the specified independent variables, and natural gas demand until 2025 was obtained. According to the forecasting results, Türkiye’s natural gas demand for 2025 will happen as an interval between 29.61 and 53.62 mtoe based on the low and high scenarios, respectively. According to the expected scenario, this demand would be realized around 40 mtoe for Türkiye in the year 2025. Finally, Grey Dynamic Decision Support System was designed and introduced to easily apply the dynamic grey models by end-users.KEYWORDS: Energy policiesforecastingGrey Dynamic decision support systemGrey prediction modelsNatural gas Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Ethical approvalThis article does not include any studies with human participants or animals performed by any of the authors.
{"title":"Prediction of natural gas demand by considering implications of energy-related policies: The case of Türkiye","authors":"Huseyin Avni ES, Pınar Baban, Coskun Hamzacebi","doi":"10.1080/15567249.2023.2274865","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2023.2274865","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACTThe most important key to determining sustainable energy policies is reliable and accurate energy demand forecasting. Grey prediction, one of the demand forecasting methods, makes successful forecasts with limited data and without the need for any prior knowledge. In this study, GM (1,1) and Grey Verhulst from time series models and GM (1, N) model based on cause–effect relationship were used to forecast Türkiye’s natural gas demand. Dynamic grey forecasting models have been developed in order to obtain robust and reliable predictions. All developed models were evaluated according to performance criteria, and the superior model was obtained to be GM (1,5). Within the scope of the study, it was determined that models based on cause–effect relationship should be preferred instead of time series models. For this, population, the amount of electricity generated from natural gas, industrial production index, and building area are determined as independent variables. Three different scenarios were created taking into account the specified independent variables, and natural gas demand until 2025 was obtained. According to the forecasting results, Türkiye’s natural gas demand for 2025 will happen as an interval between 29.61 and 53.62 mtoe based on the low and high scenarios, respectively. According to the expected scenario, this demand would be realized around 40 mtoe for Türkiye in the year 2025. Finally, Grey Dynamic Decision Support System was designed and introduced to easily apply the dynamic grey models by end-users.KEYWORDS: Energy policiesforecastingGrey Dynamic decision support systemGrey prediction modelsNatural gas Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Ethical approvalThis article does not include any studies with human participants or animals performed by any of the authors.","PeriodicalId":51247,"journal":{"name":"Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy","volume":"9 7","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134992150","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-03DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2023.2272264
Mohammad Royapoor, Adib Allahham, Seyed Hamid Reza Hosseini, Nabila Ahmed Rufa’I, Sara Louise Walker
One of the most challenging sectors to meet “Net Zero emissions” target by 2050 in the UK is the domestic heating sector. This paper provides a comprehensive literature review of the main challenges of heating systems transition to low carbon technologies in which three distinct categories of challenges are discussed. The first challenge is of decarbonizing heat at the supply side, considering specifically the difficulties in integrating hydrogen as a low-carbon heating substitute to the dominant natural gas. The next challenge is of decarbonizing heat at the demand side, and research into the difficulties of retrofitting the existing UK housing stock, of digitalizing heating energy systems, as well as ensuring both retrofits and digitalization do not disproportionately affect vulnerable groups in society. The need for demonstrating innovative solutions to these challenges leads to the final focus, which is the challenge of modeling and demonstrating future energy systems heating scenarios. This work concludes with recommendations for the energy research community and policy makers to tackle urgent challenges facing the decarbonization of the UK heating sector.
{"title":"Towards 2050 net zero carbon infrastructure: a critical review of key decarbonization challenges in the domestic heating sector in the UK","authors":"Mohammad Royapoor, Adib Allahham, Seyed Hamid Reza Hosseini, Nabila Ahmed Rufa’I, Sara Louise Walker","doi":"10.1080/15567249.2023.2272264","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2023.2272264","url":null,"abstract":"One of the most challenging sectors to meet “Net Zero emissions” target by 2050 in the UK is the domestic heating sector. This paper provides a comprehensive literature review of the main challenges of heating systems transition to low carbon technologies in which three distinct categories of challenges are discussed. The first challenge is of decarbonizing heat at the supply side, considering specifically the difficulties in integrating hydrogen as a low-carbon heating substitute to the dominant natural gas. The next challenge is of decarbonizing heat at the demand side, and research into the difficulties of retrofitting the existing UK housing stock, of digitalizing heating energy systems, as well as ensuring both retrofits and digitalization do not disproportionately affect vulnerable groups in society. The need for demonstrating innovative solutions to these challenges leads to the final focus, which is the challenge of modeling and demonstrating future energy systems heating scenarios. This work concludes with recommendations for the energy research community and policy makers to tackle urgent challenges facing the decarbonization of the UK heating sector.","PeriodicalId":51247,"journal":{"name":"Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy","volume":"59 6","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135820120","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-11DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2023.2266692
Emre Ünal, Nezir Köse
ABSTRACTThe digital world has become an inevitable part of daily life. With cryptocurrencies, a new investment opportunity has emerged around the globe. Extending digital life increases the energy demand. These new assets consume a considerable amount of energy resources. The mining process in particular can be significantly affected by energy prices. The purpose of this work is to reveal the impact of the oil price on mineable and non-mineable cryptocurrencies which would provide insight for policymakers, investors, miners, and portfolio managers. This research utilized a panel cointegration model and panel Granger causality tests to the daily data collected between May 11, 2021 and June 23, 2022. 15 mineable and 19 non-mineable cryptocurrencies were selected for the study. Other variables include the oil price, the VIX, and the gold price. The research indicated that there is a negative correlation between the oil price and cryptocurrencies. The VIX had a negative effect in the short term, whereas the gold price had a positive and significant correlation in the long term. The impact of the oil price on mineable cryptocurrencies was larger than that on non-mineable cryptocurrencies. This means that alternative energy resources are essential to reduce the dependency of cryptocurrencies on this type of fossil fuel.KEYWORDS: Cryptocurrencymineable and non-mineablepanel granger causality testoil priceVIX Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 Since the order of integration for the VIX is zero, this variable has not included in the econometric equation for detection long-term equilibrium relationship.
{"title":"The impact of the oil price on mineable and non-mineable cryptocurrencies","authors":"Emre Ünal, Nezir Köse","doi":"10.1080/15567249.2023.2266692","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2023.2266692","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACTThe digital world has become an inevitable part of daily life. With cryptocurrencies, a new investment opportunity has emerged around the globe. Extending digital life increases the energy demand. These new assets consume a considerable amount of energy resources. The mining process in particular can be significantly affected by energy prices. The purpose of this work is to reveal the impact of the oil price on mineable and non-mineable cryptocurrencies which would provide insight for policymakers, investors, miners, and portfolio managers. This research utilized a panel cointegration model and panel Granger causality tests to the daily data collected between May 11, 2021 and June 23, 2022. 15 mineable and 19 non-mineable cryptocurrencies were selected for the study. Other variables include the oil price, the VIX, and the gold price. The research indicated that there is a negative correlation between the oil price and cryptocurrencies. The VIX had a negative effect in the short term, whereas the gold price had a positive and significant correlation in the long term. The impact of the oil price on mineable cryptocurrencies was larger than that on non-mineable cryptocurrencies. This means that alternative energy resources are essential to reduce the dependency of cryptocurrencies on this type of fossil fuel.KEYWORDS: Cryptocurrencymineable and non-mineablepanel granger causality testoil priceVIX Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 Since the order of integration for the VIX is zero, this variable has not included in the econometric equation for detection long-term equilibrium relationship.","PeriodicalId":51247,"journal":{"name":"Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy","volume":"61 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136099268","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-02DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2023.2263006
Donglan Zha, Chaoqun Zhang, Caidan Tan, Ning Ding
ABSTRACTGiven the significant increase in residential electricity consumption in China, promoting the use of energy-efficient household appliances in residential buildings is imperative. Considering this, we construct a new comprehensive model, including the theory of planned behavior (TPB) and Theory of value belief norms (VBN), to identify consumers’ intentions to purchase energy-efficient household appliances. The model is empirically tested using a structural equation modeling approach based on 891 effective questionnaires from Chinese respondents. The results show that TPB variables are important factors in predicting consumers’ intentions to purchase energy-efficient household appliances. Product cognition is the best predictor of purchasing intention, followed by perceived behavioral control, environmental awareness, and subjective norms. For VBN variables, the egoistic value and altruistic value placed on the awareness of consequence is insignificant; the other VBN variables all affect purchasing intention. Compared with the original TPB model or VBN model, this comprehensive model exhibits superior predictive ability in the purchase intention of energy-efficient household appliances. In this comprehensive model, environmental awareness creates a significant effect between the awareness of consequence and ascription of responsibility and the interactive influence of subjective norms on the personal norm. Finally, several important policy implications are documented.KEYWORDS: Energy-saving behaviorenergy-efficient household appliancesvalue-belief-norm theory AcknowledgementsWe are grateful for the financial support provided by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 72074111)Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 National Energy Administration, http://www.nea.gov.cn/. (Accessed 26 May 2021).2 National Bureau of Statistics, http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/. (Accessed 03 October 2021).3 The energy-efficient household appliances mentioned in this study refer to high-efficiency home appliances with an energy efficiency level of 1 or 2.4 This study utilized an independent samples t-test since gender was a bicategorical variable. This study grouped age, income, and education level as multi-category variables for distinct groups to observe differences between groups. For example, the ages were classified into four categories: youth, prime-age, middle age, and old age. Four income categories are formed based on low, middle, upper-middle, and high-income levels. Thus, ANOVA was employed in the analysis.Additional informationFundingWe are grateful for the financial support provided by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 72074111) and Major Program of National Fund of Philosophy and Social Science of China (No. 23ZDA111).
{"title":"A comprehensive model to explain consumers’ purchasing intention of energy-efficient household appliances: A case study in China","authors":"Donglan Zha, Chaoqun Zhang, Caidan Tan, Ning Ding","doi":"10.1080/15567249.2023.2263006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2023.2263006","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACTGiven the significant increase in residential electricity consumption in China, promoting the use of energy-efficient household appliances in residential buildings is imperative. Considering this, we construct a new comprehensive model, including the theory of planned behavior (TPB) and Theory of value belief norms (VBN), to identify consumers’ intentions to purchase energy-efficient household appliances. The model is empirically tested using a structural equation modeling approach based on 891 effective questionnaires from Chinese respondents. The results show that TPB variables are important factors in predicting consumers’ intentions to purchase energy-efficient household appliances. Product cognition is the best predictor of purchasing intention, followed by perceived behavioral control, environmental awareness, and subjective norms. For VBN variables, the egoistic value and altruistic value placed on the awareness of consequence is insignificant; the other VBN variables all affect purchasing intention. Compared with the original TPB model or VBN model, this comprehensive model exhibits superior predictive ability in the purchase intention of energy-efficient household appliances. In this comprehensive model, environmental awareness creates a significant effect between the awareness of consequence and ascription of responsibility and the interactive influence of subjective norms on the personal norm. Finally, several important policy implications are documented.KEYWORDS: Energy-saving behaviorenergy-efficient household appliancesvalue-belief-norm theory AcknowledgementsWe are grateful for the financial support provided by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 72074111)Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 National Energy Administration, http://www.nea.gov.cn/. (Accessed 26 May 2021).2 National Bureau of Statistics, http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/. (Accessed 03 October 2021).3 The energy-efficient household appliances mentioned in this study refer to high-efficiency home appliances with an energy efficiency level of 1 or 2.4 This study utilized an independent samples t-test since gender was a bicategorical variable. This study grouped age, income, and education level as multi-category variables for distinct groups to observe differences between groups. For example, the ages were classified into four categories: youth, prime-age, middle age, and old age. Four income categories are formed based on low, middle, upper-middle, and high-income levels. Thus, ANOVA was employed in the analysis.Additional informationFundingWe are grateful for the financial support provided by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 72074111) and Major Program of National Fund of Philosophy and Social Science of China (No. 23ZDA111).","PeriodicalId":51247,"journal":{"name":"Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135900100","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-07DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2023.2255584
Sami Ullah, Rundong Luo, Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo, Daniel Balsalobre-lorente
ABSTRACT Carbon dioxide (CO2) emission is a major contributor to global climate change and needs an instant reduction to preserve the environmental quality of the planet. To ensure this, our study examines the role of green factors in terms of finance, technology, and energy in reducing CO2 emissions in China using quarterly data spanning 2001Q1-2020Q4. A recently developed frequency- and time-varying technique named “Wavelet Local Multiple Correlation” is applied to examine the impact of considered factors on CO2 emission dynamics in short-, medium-, and long-term. Thus, our study is the first to provide detailed insights into the role of green factors in reducing CO2 emission in China in a multivariate context. The outcomes confirm the long-term positive connectedness among green finance, green technology, and green energy consumption. Secondly, all these factors are asymmetrically and negatively correlated to CO2 emissions in long-term frequencies. However, green energy and green finance are highly affecting the CO2 in long-term, while green technology in medium-term. Finally, the multivariate analysis confirms that all the explanatory variables follow a similar trend in affecting CO2 emission; though, green finance is the dominant factor in the correlation. Based on the findings, the study recommends promoting green innovations, financial measures, and renewable energy that help China to limit CO2 emissions and promote environmental quality.
{"title":"Green perspectives of finance, technology innovations, and energy consumption in restraining carbon emissions in China: Fresh insights from Wavelet approach","authors":"Sami Ullah, Rundong Luo, Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo, Daniel Balsalobre-lorente","doi":"10.1080/15567249.2023.2255584","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2023.2255584","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Carbon dioxide (CO2) emission is a major contributor to global climate change and needs an instant reduction to preserve the environmental quality of the planet. To ensure this, our study examines the role of green factors in terms of finance, technology, and energy in reducing CO2 emissions in China using quarterly data spanning 2001Q1-2020Q4. A recently developed frequency- and time-varying technique named “Wavelet Local Multiple Correlation” is applied to examine the impact of considered factors on CO2 emission dynamics in short-, medium-, and long-term. Thus, our study is the first to provide detailed insights into the role of green factors in reducing CO2 emission in China in a multivariate context. The outcomes confirm the long-term positive connectedness among green finance, green technology, and green energy consumption. Secondly, all these factors are asymmetrically and negatively correlated to CO2 emissions in long-term frequencies. However, green energy and green finance are highly affecting the CO2 in long-term, while green technology in medium-term. Finally, the multivariate analysis confirms that all the explanatory variables follow a similar trend in affecting CO2 emission; though, green finance is the dominant factor in the correlation. Based on the findings, the study recommends promoting green innovations, financial measures, and renewable energy that help China to limit CO2 emissions and promote environmental quality.","PeriodicalId":51247,"journal":{"name":"Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2023-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84933894","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-07DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2023.2254764
Ahmad K. Sleiti, Wahib A. Al‐Ammari, F. Musharavati, Mohammad Azizur Rahman
ABSTRACT Hydrogen has the potential to play a major role in the global energy mix in the future and to achieve carbon-neutral targets by 2050. However, there is a lack of studies that investigate the economic feasibility of blue-hydrogen export from natural gas exporting countries, especially from the Middle East. Therefore, this study presents a techno-economic assessment of hydrogen production and transportation from the Middle East to Asia-Pacific and European countries. Two different pathways were assessed; liquefied hydrogen (LH2) and ammonia (NH3) starting from hydrogen production (from natural gas with carbon capture) to the distribution stage. Additionally, the effectiveness of the proposed-optimistic improvements for LH2-pathway is presented. Results show that based on current hydrogen liquefaction/storage technologies, the overall levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) for LH2-pathway (5.17$/kg-H2) is higher than NH3-pathway (4.76$/kg-H2) by 8.61% at 600 tons/day and 14,000 km shipping distance. Furthermore, the LCOH of the improved LH2 pathway (4.46$/kg-H2) is still higher than of the improved NH3 pathway (4.03$/kg-H2) by 10.7%. This implies that the overseas transportation of hydrogen as ammonia is more economically feasible than of the LH2 option.
{"title":"Techno-economic assessment of low-carbon hydrogen exports from the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific, and Europe","authors":"Ahmad K. Sleiti, Wahib A. Al‐Ammari, F. Musharavati, Mohammad Azizur Rahman","doi":"10.1080/15567249.2023.2254764","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2023.2254764","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Hydrogen has the potential to play a major role in the global energy mix in the future and to achieve carbon-neutral targets by 2050. However, there is a lack of studies that investigate the economic feasibility of blue-hydrogen export from natural gas exporting countries, especially from the Middle East. Therefore, this study presents a techno-economic assessment of hydrogen production and transportation from the Middle East to Asia-Pacific and European countries. Two different pathways were assessed; liquefied hydrogen (LH2) and ammonia (NH3) starting from hydrogen production (from natural gas with carbon capture) to the distribution stage. Additionally, the effectiveness of the proposed-optimistic improvements for LH2-pathway is presented. Results show that based on current hydrogen liquefaction/storage technologies, the overall levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) for LH2-pathway (5.17$/kg-H2) is higher than NH3-pathway (4.76$/kg-H2) by 8.61% at 600 tons/day and 14,000 km shipping distance. Furthermore, the LCOH of the improved LH2 pathway (4.46$/kg-H2) is still higher than of the improved NH3 pathway (4.03$/kg-H2) by 10.7%. This implies that the overseas transportation of hydrogen as ammonia is more economically feasible than of the LH2 option.","PeriodicalId":51247,"journal":{"name":"Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy","volume":"85 2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2023-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73075597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-05DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2023.2250781
Šárka Jablonská, T. Králík
ABSTRACT This paper analyzes the potential for natural gas in Austria, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia in order to develop a model that accurately describes the adequacy of transmission capacities in the region up until the year 2035. Two scenarios are created using the model. The first scenario is based on the situation prior to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, while the second scenario considers the conflict, allowing to observe its impact. In the Original Scenario, gas was an indisputable part of the energy mix, and it was desirable to increase the transmission capacity. In contrast, the Reduction Scenario aims to reduce gas consumption and to diversify the portfolio of suppliers, which makes its role uncertain. Under this scenario the flow distribution significantly changes and neglects the transit role of the selected region. The surprising result was that the flow through Ukraine became the main gas flowing from Russia. Both scenarios also shared a common outcome – the importance of storage capacities.
{"title":"Natural gas as a transition bridge by 2035 and its transmission capacities adequacy","authors":"Šárka Jablonská, T. Králík","doi":"10.1080/15567249.2023.2250781","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2023.2250781","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper analyzes the potential for natural gas in Austria, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia in order to develop a model that accurately describes the adequacy of transmission capacities in the region up until the year 2035. Two scenarios are created using the model. The first scenario is based on the situation prior to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, while the second scenario considers the conflict, allowing to observe its impact. In the Original Scenario, gas was an indisputable part of the energy mix, and it was desirable to increase the transmission capacity. In contrast, the Reduction Scenario aims to reduce gas consumption and to diversify the portfolio of suppliers, which makes its role uncertain. Under this scenario the flow distribution significantly changes and neglects the transit role of the selected region. The surprising result was that the flow through Ukraine became the main gas flowing from Russia. Both scenarios also shared a common outcome – the importance of storage capacities.","PeriodicalId":51247,"journal":{"name":"Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2023-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79160606","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-31DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2023.2250844
Esra N. Kılcı
ABSTRACT Our paper analyzes the causality link between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in selected Euro-Area countries. We conduct our analysis for Austria, Belgium, Finland, Germany, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and the Netherlands in the period from 1990 to 2020 by employing a recent panel causality test that takes structural breaks into account. First, we examine the stationary characteristics of data by employing a panel unit root test proposed by Bahmani-Oskooee (2014). In the second stage, we use the panel Fourier Toda Yamamoto (PFTY) test proposed by Yilanci and Gorus (2020). We find a one-way causal link between economic growth and renewable energy consumption for the panel supporting the evidence of the validity of the conservative hypothesis. Similarly, there are one-way causality runs from economic growth to renewable energy consumption in Spain, Italy, and Netherlands. Furthermore, there is a one-way causality run from renewable energy consumption to economic growth only in Finland supporting the evidence of the validity of the growth hypothesis. Nevertheless, we could not find any causality connection between renewable energy consumption and economic growth for the panel and also for Austria, Belgium, Germany, and Portugal on a country basis, thus supporting the evidence of the validity of the neutrality hypothesis.
{"title":"An investigation on the causality link between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in selected Euro-Area countries","authors":"Esra N. Kılcı","doi":"10.1080/15567249.2023.2250844","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2023.2250844","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Our paper analyzes the causality link between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in selected Euro-Area countries. We conduct our analysis for Austria, Belgium, Finland, Germany, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and the Netherlands in the period from 1990 to 2020 by employing a recent panel causality test that takes structural breaks into account. First, we examine the stationary characteristics of data by employing a panel unit root test proposed by Bahmani-Oskooee (2014). In the second stage, we use the panel Fourier Toda Yamamoto (PFTY) test proposed by Yilanci and Gorus (2020). We find a one-way causal link between economic growth and renewable energy consumption for the panel supporting the evidence of the validity of the conservative hypothesis. Similarly, there are one-way causality runs from economic growth to renewable energy consumption in Spain, Italy, and Netherlands. Furthermore, there is a one-way causality run from renewable energy consumption to economic growth only in Finland supporting the evidence of the validity of the growth hypothesis. Nevertheless, we could not find any causality connection between renewable energy consumption and economic growth for the panel and also for Austria, Belgium, Germany, and Portugal on a country basis, thus supporting the evidence of the validity of the neutrality hypothesis.","PeriodicalId":51247,"journal":{"name":"Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy","volume":"187 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2023-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76479266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-23DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2023.2250775
I. Tsai
ABSTRACT The integration or segmentation of regional carbon prices implies that barriers may hinder prices from adjusting efficiently and impede linkages between regional carbon markets. Past studies have found that cross-regional carbon prices in China tend to diverge, indicating unbalanced regional markets and that carbon cap-and-trade policies may be insufficiently effective. China’s carbon trading pilots opened in 2013. Is the integration efficient? This is the research question addressed in this study. This paper uses the carbon prices of four carbon-trading pilot regions in China (i.e. Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangdong) over the period of January 1, 2014, to March 23, 2021, to explore whether prices are correlated across three dimensions: long-term convergence, short-term correlation, and volatility transmission by adopting a vector error correction model with heterogeneous variances. And by using longer-term daily data and empirical tests that can account for the multiple-faceted correlations, this paper provides evidence showing that long-term convergence and risk transfer between the four regional carbon prices exist, which indicates significant regional integration. The results indicate that the price behavior of the Beijing pilot is efficient and that the Shanghai pilot has the lowest volatility. The paper also documents an information transfer pattern. For example, the Beijing pilot is shown to be the leading risk transfer market, whereas the Shanghai pilot is shown to be the market where most risk is transferred. Contrary to findings elsewhere, our main results demonstrate that China’s carbon markets exhibit integration efficiency and no imbalance between regions. This may be because the efficiency of China’s carbon markets has improved over time. The evidence also implies that if a multi-dimensional correlation has not been considered, it may underestimate the efficiency of regional carbon prices’ integration.
{"title":"Exploring the effect of carbon cap-and-trade policy in China based on the evidence from multi-dimensional association","authors":"I. Tsai","doi":"10.1080/15567249.2023.2250775","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2023.2250775","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The integration or segmentation of regional carbon prices implies that barriers may hinder prices from adjusting efficiently and impede linkages between regional carbon markets. Past studies have found that cross-regional carbon prices in China tend to diverge, indicating unbalanced regional markets and that carbon cap-and-trade policies may be insufficiently effective. China’s carbon trading pilots opened in 2013. Is the integration efficient? This is the research question addressed in this study. This paper uses the carbon prices of four carbon-trading pilot regions in China (i.e. Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangdong) over the period of January 1, 2014, to March 23, 2021, to explore whether prices are correlated across three dimensions: long-term convergence, short-term correlation, and volatility transmission by adopting a vector error correction model with heterogeneous variances. And by using longer-term daily data and empirical tests that can account for the multiple-faceted correlations, this paper provides evidence showing that long-term convergence and risk transfer between the four regional carbon prices exist, which indicates significant regional integration. The results indicate that the price behavior of the Beijing pilot is efficient and that the Shanghai pilot has the lowest volatility. The paper also documents an information transfer pattern. For example, the Beijing pilot is shown to be the leading risk transfer market, whereas the Shanghai pilot is shown to be the market where most risk is transferred. Contrary to findings elsewhere, our main results demonstrate that China’s carbon markets exhibit integration efficiency and no imbalance between regions. This may be because the efficiency of China’s carbon markets has improved over time. The evidence also implies that if a multi-dimensional correlation has not been considered, it may underestimate the efficiency of regional carbon prices’ integration.","PeriodicalId":51247,"journal":{"name":"Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy","volume":"41 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2023-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79209762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-02DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2023.2241466
Feti Erbaş, Yaşar Köse, Rıza Bayrak, Ceyda Aktan
ABSTRACT The main target of this study is to estimate the determinants and their effect on incentives implemented in the electrical energy sector in Turkey. The data of the study covers 60 quarters between 2005 and 2019. While the dependent variable is investment incentives, the independent variables of the study are separated, classified, and tested under three different models. The first model includes economic variables (GDP, interest rate, exchange rate, inflation, export, and import), the second model includes production and investment variables (tariff price, industrial production index, total installed power, gross fixed capital formation), and the third model contains the demand determinant variables (production of the incentive plants, electricity gross demand, peak sudden). Moreover, the dummy variable was included in the study for the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. The results of the ARDL Boundary Test showed that in the long run, GDP and Exchange Rate variables were seen to have the most significant impact on incentives, respectively, where these effects were positive in the case of GDP and negative for the Exchange Rate. These were followed by the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. It is recommended that policymakers should always consider the negative effect of the exchange rates on the incentive system in their long-term planning.
{"title":"The determinants of incentives implemented in the electrical energy sector: an empirical analysis on the Turkish energy market","authors":"Feti Erbaş, Yaşar Köse, Rıza Bayrak, Ceyda Aktan","doi":"10.1080/15567249.2023.2241466","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2023.2241466","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The main target of this study is to estimate the determinants and their effect on incentives implemented in the electrical energy sector in Turkey. The data of the study covers 60 quarters between 2005 and 2019. While the dependent variable is investment incentives, the independent variables of the study are separated, classified, and tested under three different models. The first model includes economic variables (GDP, interest rate, exchange rate, inflation, export, and import), the second model includes production and investment variables (tariff price, industrial production index, total installed power, gross fixed capital formation), and the third model contains the demand determinant variables (production of the incentive plants, electricity gross demand, peak sudden). Moreover, the dummy variable was included in the study for the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. The results of the ARDL Boundary Test showed that in the long run, GDP and Exchange Rate variables were seen to have the most significant impact on incentives, respectively, where these effects were positive in the case of GDP and negative for the Exchange Rate. These were followed by the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. It is recommended that policymakers should always consider the negative effect of the exchange rates on the incentive system in their long-term planning.","PeriodicalId":51247,"journal":{"name":"Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2023-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76715004","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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