A survey of Bayesian predictive methods for model assessment, selection and comparison

Abstract

To date, several methods exist in the statistical literature for model assessment, which purport themselves specifically as Bayesian predic- tive methods. The decision theoretic assumptions on which these methods are based are not always clearly stated in the original articles, however. The aim of this survey is to provide a unified review of Bayesian predictive model assessment and selection methods, and of methods closely related to them. We review the various assumptions that are made in this context and discuss the connections between different approaches, with an emphasis on how each method approximates the expected utility of using a Bayesian model for the purpose of predicting future data.