Modeling How Macroeconomic Shocks Affect Regional Employment: Analyzing the Brazilian Formal Labor Market Using the Global VAR Approach

Abstract

Assessing linkages across different regions and how macroeconomic shocks spread out across regions is not an easy task. In this study we address this problem using a global vector autoregressive methodology that deals with the curse of dimensionality in an ingenious form. Focusing on the Brazilian labor market, identified and quantified how a shock in an aggregate economic activity spreads out regionally and throughout time. Another novelty of our work is the use of information collected by the Brazilian Bureau of Geography and Statistics to measure how regions are linked by analyzing infrastructure linkages of Brazilian municipalities in terms of airports, roads, ports, education, health, and tourism activities. Interdependence among regions is measured not only by closeness but also by considering economic linkages. In terms of regional sensitivity to macroeconomic shocks, we provide evidence that these shocks tend to cause stronger effects on the South, Southeast, and Midwest regions than the Northeast and North regions. This conclusion is in line with the idea that the formal labor market is better developed in the former regions than the latter. The South, Southeast, and Midwest regions in Brazil have better economic and social indicators.