M. Rubio, Juan Felipe Vargas Calderón, Edwin Jair Ramírez Charry
Spanish Abstract: El presente artículo buscar analizar las condiciones del sector agrícola en el período 2000-2020 a partir de las restricciones estructurales de la producción, comercialización, transformación y productividad de la pequeña agricultura. Esto se lleva a cabo desde un conjunto definido de dimensiones (macro, meso y micro) que se consideran determinantes, a saber: el modo de inserción internacional, la especialización productiva y las condiciones estructurales del sector rural en Colombia; asimismo, las condiciones de financiamiento de la producción de la pequeña agricultura. English Abstract: This article aims to analyze the conditions of the agricultural sector in the period 2000-2020 based on the structural constraints on production, marketing, productive transformation, and productivity of small-scale agriculture. This is done on the following dimensions, which are considered determinants: the mode of international insertion, productive specialization, and the structural conditions of the rural sector in Colombia, as well as the conditions for financing the production of small-scale agriculture.
{"title":"Esbozo de un análisis socioeconómico del sector agrícola en Colombia, 2000-2020 (Outline of a Socio-Economic Analysis of the Agricultural Sector in Colombia, 2000-2020)","authors":"M. Rubio, Juan Felipe Vargas Calderón, Edwin Jair Ramírez Charry","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3917455","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3917455","url":null,"abstract":"Spanish Abstract: El presente artículo buscar analizar las condiciones del sector agrícola en el período 2000-2020 a partir de las restricciones estructurales de la producción, comercialización, transformación y productividad de la pequeña agricultura. Esto se lleva a cabo desde un conjunto definido de dimensiones (macro, meso y micro) que se consideran determinantes, a saber: el modo de inserción internacional, la especialización productiva y las condiciones estructurales del sector rural en Colombia; asimismo, las condiciones de financiamiento de la producción de la pequeña agricultura. English Abstract: This article aims to analyze the conditions of the agricultural sector in the period 2000-2020 based on the structural constraints on production, marketing, productive transformation, and productivity of small-scale agriculture. This is done on the following dimensions, which are considered determinants: the mode of international insertion, productive specialization, and the structural conditions of the rural sector in Colombia, as well as the conditions for financing the production of small-scale agriculture.","PeriodicalId":18190,"journal":{"name":"Latin American Economics eJournal","volume":"431 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83601152","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Standard theory considers the real exchange rate (RER) as export determinant. A common limitation of cross-country evidence is the use of effective (REER) or bilateral (BRER) RER indices, both of which have the same values across sectors. The novel contributions of this paper are a variety of goods trade model, to exploit cross-sector variations by constructing a unique sectoral bilateral RER index (SBRER) for 12 Latin American countries, 21 sectors and 38 trade partners, and to estimate the effect of RER movements on manufacturing exports during 2001-2018. The results show that the SBRER is a significant determinant of aggregate manufacturing exports, whereas the REER and BRER appear not to be significant. Sectoral export elasticities moreover indicate that in Latin America mainly low-technology sectors are affected by RER movements. Overall these findings indicate that sectoral differences matter and provide new evidence on the effect of RER movements on Latin American exports.
{"title":"Sectoral Real Exchange Rates and Manufacturing Exports: A Case Study of Latin America","authors":"Thomas Goda, A. Torres, Cristhian Larrahondo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3867806","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3867806","url":null,"abstract":"Standard theory considers the real exchange rate (RER) as export determinant. A common limitation of cross-country evidence is the use of effective (REER) or bilateral (BRER) RER indices, both of which have the same values across sectors. The novel contributions of this paper are a variety of goods trade model, to exploit cross-sector variations by constructing a unique sectoral bilateral RER index (SBRER) for 12 Latin American countries, 21 sectors and 38 trade partners, and to estimate the effect of RER movements on manufacturing exports during 2001-2018. The results show that the SBRER is a significant determinant of aggregate manufacturing exports, whereas the REER and BRER appear not to be significant. Sectoral export elasticities moreover indicate that in Latin America mainly low-technology sectors are affected by RER movements. Overall these findings indicate that sectoral differences matter and provide new evidence on the effect of RER movements on Latin American exports.","PeriodicalId":18190,"journal":{"name":"Latin American Economics eJournal","volume":"43 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89391567","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates the pathways through which immigrant communities (social networks) influence individual naturalization. Specifically, we examine the impact that a fraction of naturalized co-ethnics, residing in the same block as a new immigrant in New York City in 1930, have on the probability of said immigrant becoming a U.S. citizen in 1940. Our results indicate that the concentration of naturalized co-ethnics residing in the block positively predicts individual naturalization and that this relationship operates through one main channel: information dissemination. Indeed, immigrants who live among naturalized co-ethnics are more likely to naturalize because they have greater access to critical information about the benefits and procedures of naturalization.
{"title":"Social Networks and (Political) Assimilation in the Age of Mass Migration","authors":"Costanza Biavaschi, Corrado Giulietti, Y. Zenou","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3851123","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3851123","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the pathways through which immigrant communities (social networks) influence individual naturalization. Specifically, we examine the impact that a fraction of naturalized co-ethnics, residing in the same block as a new immigrant in New York City in 1930, have on the probability of said immigrant becoming a U.S. citizen in 1940. Our results indicate that the concentration of naturalized co-ethnics residing in the block positively predicts individual naturalization and that this relationship operates through one main channel: information dissemination. Indeed, immigrants who live among naturalized co-ethnics are more likely to naturalize because they have greater access to critical information about the benefits and procedures of naturalization.","PeriodicalId":18190,"journal":{"name":"Latin American Economics eJournal","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82135824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper unravels the linkage between income inequality and women’s participation in the labor force within a group of developing countries drawn from Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa. It adds to the existing body of literature by providing additional empirical evidence and pertinent situations to a group of countries in which current empiricism on the subject is to a large extent scanty. The choice of these countries has been done basically on grounds that they are subjected to very high income inequality trends and relentless policies encompassing gender biases. The traits are common to both sets of countries. Our regression results, based on 45 countries, clearly unfold that greater female participation in these countries tend to reduce income inequality. The major policy implication that emanates from this research is that governments in these countries should emphasize on empowering women to achieve greater gender equity in employment, lower income inequality and higher welfare for all.
{"title":"Greater Female Employment Participation as a Catalyst to Reducing Income Inequality in Developing Countries – The Case of Latin American and Sub-Saharan African Countries","authors":"S. Sobhee","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3741992","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3741992","url":null,"abstract":"This paper unravels the linkage between income inequality and women’s participation in the labor force within a group of developing countries drawn from Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa. It adds to the existing body of literature by providing additional empirical evidence and pertinent situations to a group of countries in which current empiricism on the subject is to a large extent scanty. The choice of these countries has been done basically on grounds that they are subjected to very high income inequality trends and relentless policies encompassing gender biases. The traits are common to both sets of countries. Our regression results, based on 45 countries, clearly unfold that greater female participation in these countries tend to reduce income inequality. The major policy implication that emanates from this research is that governments in these countries should emphasize on empowering women to achieve greater gender equity in employment, lower income inequality and higher welfare for all.","PeriodicalId":18190,"journal":{"name":"Latin American Economics eJournal","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88776976","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
M. Bérgolo, Martin Leites, Ricardo Perez-Truglia, Matias Strehl
Why do some individuals choose to evade taxes while others do not? One popular view is that some individuals cheat on their taxes because they are more dishonest, selfish, or perceive different social norms. There is, however, little direct evidence on this matter. In collaboration with the national tax agency in Uruguay, we address this question using a combination of surveys and administrative records. Leveraging a unique institutional setting, we measure individual-level evasion choices. We document significant variation in evasion decisions across individuals. For a subsample of 6,078 taxpayers, we use survey questions and incentivized laboratory games to measure traits such as honesty, selfishness, and perceived social norms. We find that these individual traits have some power to predict who evades taxes, but other factors, such as the environment, play a much bigger role.
{"title":"What Makes a Tax Evader?","authors":"M. Bérgolo, Martin Leites, Ricardo Perez-Truglia, Matias Strehl","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3750462","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3750462","url":null,"abstract":"Why do some individuals choose to evade taxes while others do not? One popular view is that some individuals cheat on their taxes because they are more dishonest, selfish, or perceive different social norms. There is, however, little direct evidence on this matter. In collaboration with the national tax agency in Uruguay, we address this question using a combination of surveys and administrative records. Leveraging a unique institutional setting, we measure individual-level evasion choices. We document significant variation in evasion decisions across individuals. For a subsample of 6,078 taxpayers, we use survey questions and incentivized laboratory games to measure traits such as honesty, selfishness, and perceived social norms. We find that these individual traits have some power to predict who evades taxes, but other factors, such as the environment, play a much bigger role.","PeriodicalId":18190,"journal":{"name":"Latin American Economics eJournal","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75809406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
First, the purpose of this paper is to investigate and examine a case study on Petrobras Brazil’s largest Latin-American state-owned oil company, its cost of capital, corruption, and the privatization of its growing pre-salt oil reserves. Next, the paper will be a qualitative research into the corruption scandal by Brazil’s former President Dilma Rousseff and the serious allegations. The government believes that she was part of the corruption not a part of the solution during her position as Chairman of Petrobras, which she has destroyed the brand name, as well as, drove the company into 130 billion dollar debt as of 2016. Hence, since the Petrobras inception in 1953 the state-own oil company now has 33% of the shares and 55% of the voting capital, which sends signals to the opposition they have the controlling rights to the company’s assets, as well as, the liabilities (Eiteman, Stonehill and Moffett, 2013).
{"title":"Petrobras of Brazil the Impact on the Pre-Salt Oil Wells","authors":"Ty Branch","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3711070","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3711070","url":null,"abstract":"First, the purpose of this paper is to investigate and examine a case study on Petrobras Brazil’s largest Latin-American state-owned oil company, its cost of capital, corruption, and the privatization of its growing pre-salt oil reserves. Next, the paper will be a qualitative research into the corruption scandal by Brazil’s former President Dilma Rousseff and the serious allegations. The government believes that she was part of the corruption not a part of the solution during her position as Chairman of Petrobras, which she has destroyed the brand name, as well as, drove the company into 130 billion dollar debt as of 2016. Hence, since the Petrobras inception in 1953 the state-own oil company now has 33% of the shares and 55% of the voting capital, which sends signals to the opposition they have the controlling rights to the company’s assets, as well as, the liabilities (Eiteman, Stonehill and Moffett, 2013).","PeriodicalId":18190,"journal":{"name":"Latin American Economics eJournal","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81773199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Spanish Abstract: Este documento propone una reforma tributaria comprensiva tendiente a: i) asegurar la sostenibilidad de la relación Deuda Gobierno Central/PIB de tal manera que no se desborde el umbral del 70%, sabiéndose que esta ha subido del 35% al 52% en pre-pandemia;ii) mejorar la formalidad laboral de Colombia a través de desmontar cerca de 17 puntos de un total de 51 que hoy representan los sobre costos no-salariales que enfrentan las firmas operando desde Colombia;y iii) allegar recursos de solidaridad en pos-pandemia para los estratos bajos y ancianos indigentes.El esfuerzo tributario adicional requerido para alcanzar tales objetivos asciende a cerca de 5% del PIB, de los cuales se tienen fuentes relativamente bien identificadas por cerca de 3.7% del PIB hacia el mediano plazo. La profundización del IVA a la tasa del 19% aportaría cerca de 2% del PIB;tasas más progresivas en los ingresos de la clase media-alta (incluyendo ajustes al imporiqueza) aportarían 0.5% del PIB;y la reversión en algunos alivios dados a la firmas (bajo Ley 2010 del 2019) allegarían el restante 1.2% del PIB. Tal vez la mejor forma de divulgar los objetivos de esta reforma es visualizándola como un paquete fiscal que, en últimas, lograría sostenibilidad fiscal, mejoras en la calidad del mercado laboral y mayor equidad en el frente del gasto público.English Abstract: This document proposes a comprehensive tax-reform for Colombia aiming at: i) providing sustainability for the ratio of Central Government Gross Debt/GDP below the threshold of 70%, knowing that it has been raising from 35% up to 52% during 2012-2019;ii) substituting by budget allocations about 17 percentage points out of 51 of non-wage costs on behalf of the firms;and iii) create fiscal room to increase support for low strata families, particularly affected by the pandemic of Covid-19 which erupted over 2020-2021.We conclude that achieving such fiscal goals will require close to 5% of GDP of additional tax collections of which we here identified nearly 3.7% of GPD over the period 2021-2022. By extending from 45% to 90% of invoicing-items the application of the current general VAT-rate of 19%, about 2% of GPD could be raised;the use of more progressive income-tax rates and lowering the level of application of the current wealth-tax on households would increase tax collections in about 0.5% of GDP;and, finally, the reversion of some tax-exemptions recently granted to firms (under Law 2010 of 2019) could increase tax-revenue by 1.2% of GDP.Perhaps the best form to impulse this tax-reform is to envision it as an instrument to improve not only the debt sustainability of Colombia, but as an efficient instrument to improve income equality and to provide better formal opportunities for a labor market facing open unemployment at double-digit rates.
本文提出了一项全面的税收改革，旨在:㈠确保可持续性的中央政府债务/ gdp比率的方式而不是堆积门槛70%,这已经从35%增至52% pre-pandemia;㈡改善哥伦比亚劳动形式通过拆除近17总共51点,今天面临的关于no-salariales成本,占在哥伦比亚;㈢提供签名声援pos-pandemia资源低收入阶层和老人赤贫。为了实现这些目标，需要额外的税收努力约占gdp的5%，而在中期，这些努力的来源相对明确，约占gdp的3.7%。深化增值税按19%的接近gdp的2%;更累进收费收入阶级(包括设置imporiqueza)将gdp的0.5%;一些逆转和骰子签名(2010年法律下的其余2019)可以产生gdp的1.2%。也许宣传这项改革目标的最佳方式是将其视为一项财政方案，最终将实现财政可持续性、劳动力市场质量的改善和公共支出方面的更大公平性。英文摘要:本文件提出哥伦比亚全面税制改革，目标如下:㈠提供sustainability for the of Gross中央政府债务/ GDP比率以下70%降低门槛,knowing that it has been from 35% up to raising 52% during 2012-2019;㈡substituting by budget的about 17百分比points out of non-wage costs on behalf of the第51;和㈢create财政房间以增加support for low strata家人,特别是影响by the virus of Covid-19 which erupted over -。我们的结论是，要实现这些财政目标，额外税收征收将需要接近GDP的5%，我们在此确定，在2021-2022年期间，这将接近GDP的3.7%。By帮助从45%到90% of invoicing-items the application of the current一般性VAT-rate 19%, about 2% of GPD还将种族主义问题;the use of more progressive income-tax房费and: the level of application of the current wealth-tax on the将增加税collections in about占国内生产总值的0.5%;最后,and the reversion of some tax-exemptions惧的to第2010 cleary (Law of 2019)可增加tax-revenue By占国内生产总值的1.2%。也许推动这一税制改革的最佳方式是将其视为一种工具，不仅可以改善哥伦比亚的债务可持续性，而且可以成为一种有效的工具，可以改善收入平等，并为面临双倍公开失业的劳动力市场提供更好的正式机会。
{"title":"Propuesta de Reforma Tributaria para Colombia (2021-2022) (Proposal of Tax-Reform for Colombia (2021-2022))","authors":"Sergio Clavijo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3697662","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3697662","url":null,"abstract":"Spanish Abstract: Este documento propone una reforma tributaria comprensiva tendiente a: i) asegurar la sostenibilidad de la relación Deuda Gobierno Central/PIB de tal manera que no se desborde el umbral del 70%, sabiéndose que esta ha subido del 35% al 52% en pre-pandemia;ii) mejorar la formalidad laboral de Colombia a través de desmontar cerca de 17 puntos de un total de 51 que hoy representan los sobre costos no-salariales que enfrentan las firmas operando desde Colombia;y iii) allegar recursos de solidaridad en pos-pandemia para los estratos bajos y ancianos indigentes.El esfuerzo tributario adicional requerido para alcanzar tales objetivos asciende a cerca de 5% del PIB, de los cuales se tienen fuentes relativamente bien identificadas por cerca de 3.7% del PIB hacia el mediano plazo. La profundización del IVA a la tasa del 19% aportaría cerca de 2% del PIB;tasas más progresivas en los ingresos de la clase media-alta (incluyendo ajustes al imporiqueza) aportarían 0.5% del PIB;y la reversión en algunos alivios dados a la firmas (bajo Ley 2010 del 2019) allegarían el restante 1.2% del PIB. Tal vez la mejor forma de divulgar los objetivos de esta reforma es visualizándola como un paquete fiscal que, en últimas, lograría sostenibilidad fiscal, mejoras en la calidad del mercado laboral y mayor equidad en el frente del gasto público.English Abstract: This document proposes a comprehensive tax-reform for Colombia aiming at: i) providing sustainability for the ratio of Central Government Gross Debt/GDP below the threshold of 70%, knowing that it has been raising from 35% up to 52% during 2012-2019;ii) substituting by budget allocations about 17 percentage points out of 51 of non-wage costs on behalf of the firms;and iii) create fiscal room to increase support for low strata families, particularly affected by the pandemic of Covid-19 which erupted over 2020-2021.We conclude that achieving such fiscal goals will require close to 5% of GDP of additional tax collections of which we here identified nearly 3.7% of GPD over the period 2021-2022. By extending from 45% to 90% of invoicing-items the application of the current general VAT-rate of 19%, about 2% of GPD could be raised;the use of more progressive income-tax rates and lowering the level of application of the current wealth-tax on households would increase tax collections in about 0.5% of GDP;and, finally, the reversion of some tax-exemptions recently granted to firms (under Law 2010 of 2019) could increase tax-revenue by 1.2% of GDP.Perhaps the best form to impulse this tax-reform is to envision it as an instrument to improve not only the debt sustainability of Colombia, but as an efficient instrument to improve income equality and to provide better formal opportunities for a labor market facing open unemployment at double-digit rates.","PeriodicalId":18190,"journal":{"name":"Latin American Economics eJournal","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76967700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper I calculate the daily flows of COVID-19 cases under the current scenario of recommended social distance and restricted economic activity, and under a counterfactual uncontrolled scenario with no mitigation measures. Using official sources, I quantify the supply of hospital beds and ICUs to project the fatality of cases under both scenarios. I estimate that social distance will reduce the number of COVID-19 cases in 65%. The benefits of mitigation measures amount to a reduction of over 119,000 direct fatalities and about 121,000 deaths due to healthcare system overflow. The benefits of these measures are monetized as 697 billion USD. I estimate that the net cost of mitigation in terms of output gap over a 60-months recovery period represents 29% of 2019 Mexico's GDP. This cost would be reduced if a faster recovery occurs or if the government stimulates the economy enough to reduce output gap between the mitigation scenario and the uncontrolled scenario, making a case for an active role of fiscal policies.
{"title":"On the Economic Benefits and Costs of COVID-19 Mitigation Measures in Mexico","authors":"Irvin Rojas","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3592209","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3592209","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper I calculate the daily flows of COVID-19 cases under the current scenario of recommended social distance and restricted economic activity, and under a counterfactual uncontrolled scenario with no mitigation measures. Using official sources, I quantify the supply of hospital beds and ICUs to project the fatality of cases under both scenarios. I estimate that social distance will reduce the number of COVID-19 cases in 65%. The benefits of mitigation measures amount to a reduction of over 119,000 direct fatalities and about 121,000 deaths due to healthcare system overflow. The benefits of these measures are monetized as 697 billion USD. I estimate that the net cost of mitigation in terms of output gap over a 60-months recovery period represents 29% of 2019 Mexico's GDP. This cost would be reduced if a faster recovery occurs or if the government stimulates the economy enough to reduce output gap between the mitigation scenario and the uncontrolled scenario, making a case for an active role of fiscal policies.","PeriodicalId":18190,"journal":{"name":"Latin American Economics eJournal","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73521108","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Spanish Abstract: El presente documento muestra la aplicación de una metodología para estimar el precio cuenta de eficiencia de la divisa bajo un tipo de cambio fijo; se presenta como estudio de caso una aplicación a la economía boliviana, para el periodo 2011-2016. Un régimen del tipo de cambio fijo implica, de manera general, que el país debe tener un stock de reservas internacionales suficiente para mantenerlo en el corto plazo; en el mediano y largo plazo los ajustes en la oferta y demanda de divisas -equilibrio de la cuenta corriente- se realiza vía el tipo de cambio real -precios relativos de los bienes transables y los no transables-, incentivos (ej. subsidios a las exportaciones) y/o desincentivos (ej. aranceles), dado el tipo de cambio nominal fijo. La razón precio cuenta de la divisa bajo estas consideraciones se ve afectada no solo por las elasticidades respectivas o las ponderaciones medias de las importaciones y exportaciones e incentivos y desincentivos respectivos, sino también por la relación del Índice de tipo de cambio real de equilibrio y el Índice del tipo de cambio real vigente (ITCRE/ITCRV). Los resultados muestran que para el caso boliviano existe un des-alineamiento entre la tasa de cambio real y la tasa de cambio real de equilibrio de largo plazo y que la razón precio cuenta de la divisa para el periodo 2011-2016 con el método de ponderaciones medias de 1,19 y con el método de elasticidades de 1,19.
English Abstract: This document shows the application of a methodology to estimate the currency efficiency account price under a fixed exchange rate, an application to the Bolivian economy is presented as a case study, for the period 2011-2016. A fixed exchange rate system generally implies that the local country should maintain a sufficient level of international reserves in the short term to support the fixed rate. In the medium and long term the adjustments in currency supply and demand -current account equilibrium- are done via the real exchange rate -relative price of tradable and non-tradable goodsincentives (e.g. subsidies on exports) and disincentives (e.g. taxes), given a fixed nominal exchange rate. Under this considerations, the shadow price of the currency is affected not only by the corresponding elasticities, the average weight of imports and exports and related economic incentives but also by the relation between the real exchange rate and the active real exchange rate index. The results show that for the Bolivian economy there is a misalignment between the real exchange rate and the long term exchange rate and that the currency shadow price for the period 2011-2016 equals to 1.19 using the average weight method and 1.19 using the elasticities method.
{"title":"Precio cuenta (sombra) de la divisa en una estructura de tipo de cambio fijo. Estudio de Caso Bolivia (Account Price (Shadow) of the Currency in a Fixed Exchange Rate Structure Bolivia Case Study)","authors":"R. Castro, M. Avella","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3561250","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3561250","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Spanish Abstract: </b>El presente documento muestra la aplicación de una metodología para estimar el precio cuenta de eficiencia de la divisa bajo un tipo de cambio fijo; se presenta como estudio de caso una aplicación a la economía boliviana, para el periodo 2011-2016. Un régimen del tipo de cambio fijo implica, de manera general, que el país debe tener un stock de reservas internacionales suficiente para mantenerlo en el corto plazo; en el mediano y largo plazo los ajustes en la oferta y demanda de divisas -equilibrio de la cuenta corriente- se realiza vía el tipo de cambio real -precios relativos de los bienes transables y los no transables-, incentivos (ej. subsidios a las exportaciones) y/o desincentivos (ej. aranceles), dado el tipo de cambio nominal fijo. La razón precio cuenta de la divisa bajo estas consideraciones se ve afectada no solo por las elasticidades respectivas o las ponderaciones medias de las importaciones y exportaciones e incentivos y desincentivos respectivos, sino también por la relación del Índice de tipo de cambio real de equilibrio y el Índice del tipo de cambio real vigente (ITCRE/ITCRV). Los resultados muestran que para el caso boliviano existe un des-alineamiento entre la tasa de cambio real y la tasa de cambio real de equilibrio de largo plazo y que la razón precio cuenta de la divisa para el periodo 2011-2016 con el método de ponderaciones medias de 1,19 y con el método de elasticidades de 1,19.<br><br><b>English Abstract: </b>This document shows the application of a methodology to estimate the currency efficiency account price under a fixed exchange rate, an application to the Bolivian economy is presented as a case study, for the period 2011-2016. A fixed exchange rate system generally implies that the local country should maintain a sufficient level of international reserves in the short term to support the fixed rate. In the medium and long term the adjustments in currency supply and demand -current account equilibrium- are done via the real exchange rate -relative price of tradable and non-tradable goodsincentives (e.g. subsidies on exports) and disincentives (e.g. taxes), given a fixed nominal exchange rate. Under this considerations, the shadow price of the currency is affected not only by the corresponding elasticities, the average weight of imports and exports and related economic incentives but also by the relation between the real exchange rate and the active real exchange rate index. The results show that for the Bolivian economy there is a misalignment between the real exchange rate and the long term exchange rate and that the currency shadow price for the period 2011-2016 equals to 1.19 using the average weight method and 1.19 using the elasticities method.<br>","PeriodicalId":18190,"journal":{"name":"Latin American Economics eJournal","volume":"206 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76079192","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Spanish Abstract: El gobierno federal de México ha carecido de una política laboral integral por décadas, lo que imposibilita resolver problemas ingentes en el mercado de trabajo. La fuerza de trabajo tiene una alta proporción de adultos sin habilidades fundamentales para el trabajo, y el sistema educativo aún no atiende a millones de jóvenes que ingresarán a edades de trabajar en los próximos años. La legislación laboral se basa en una visión limitada del trabajo y es incapaz de atender al trabajo “atípico”. El Estado ha sido poco eficaz en identificar oportunidades de activación, capacitación e inspección. Se plantea una visión general de la política laboral para México sobre cinco ámbitos: activación laboral, capacitación y formación para el trabajo, aseguramiento social y estabilidad laboral calidad en el trabajo e inspección laboral. También se propone una reforma de los servicios que cambiará de manera fundamental la relación del Estado con los ciudadanos.
English Abstract: Mexico's federal government has lacked a comprehensive labor policy for decades, making it impossible to solve problems of considerable importance in the labor market. The workforce has a high proportion of adults without fundamental skills for work, and the education system is not yet serving millions of young people who will enter working ages in the coming years. Labor law is based on a limited view of work and is unable to attend "atypical" work. The State has been ineffective in identifying opportunities for activation, training and inspection. An overview of labor policy for Mexico is presented in five areas: job activation, for and on-the-job training, social insurance, quality and stability of jobs, and labor inspection. A reform of services is also proposed which will fundamentally change the relationship of the State with citizens.
{"title":"Nueva política laboral (New Labor Policy for Mexico)","authors":"G. Martínez","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3542025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3542025","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Spanish Abstract:</b> El gobierno federal de México ha carecido de una política laboral integral por décadas, lo que imposibilita resolver problemas ingentes en el mercado de trabajo. La fuerza de trabajo tiene una alta proporción de adultos sin habilidades fundamentales para el trabajo, y el sistema educativo aún no atiende a millones de jóvenes que ingresarán a edades de trabajar en los próximos años. La legislación laboral se basa en una visión limitada del trabajo y es incapaz de atender al trabajo “atípico”. El Estado ha sido poco eficaz en identificar oportunidades de activación, capacitación e inspección. Se plantea una visión general de la política laboral para México sobre cinco ámbitos: activación laboral, capacitación y formación para el trabajo, aseguramiento social y estabilidad laboral calidad en el trabajo e inspección laboral. También se propone una reforma de los servicios que cambiará de manera fundamental la relación del Estado con los ciudadanos. <br><br><b>English Abstract:</b> Mexico's federal government has lacked a comprehensive labor policy for decades, making it impossible to solve problems of considerable importance in the labor market. The workforce has a high proportion of adults without fundamental skills for work, and the education system is not yet serving millions of young people who will enter working ages in the coming years. Labor law is based on a limited view of work and is unable to attend \"atypical\" work. The State has been ineffective in identifying opportunities for activation, training and inspection. An overview of labor policy for Mexico is presented in five areas: job activation, for and on-the-job training, social insurance, quality and stability of jobs, and labor inspection. A reform of services is also proposed which will fundamentally change the relationship of the State with citizens.","PeriodicalId":18190,"journal":{"name":"Latin American Economics eJournal","volume":"56 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87436764","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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