Return Predictability in International Financial Markets and the Role of Investor Sentiment

Abstract

We investigate the predictability of stock returns in the financial market for a large panel of developed countries using investor sentiment, business-cycle variables and financial indicators within two panel regime-switching models, with threshold and smooth transition between regimes. We find strong evidence of predictability of long-term returns following the business cycles, but much weaker results for the short-run returns. During crisis times, investor sentiment and inflation become key factors in predicting stock returns. Different tests and goodness of fit measures point out that the use of regime-switching models is more appropriate than linear models. To our knowledge, this study is the first to examine the impact of investor sentiment on future returns for a large number of countries, the existing literature being mainly focused on the U.S. stock market.