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The Risk-Return Tradeoff Among Equity Factors 股票因素的风险收益权衡
Pub Date : 2021-03-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3109456
Pedro Barroso, Paulo F. Maio
We examine the time-series risk-return trade-off among several long-short equity factors by estimating univariate predictive regressions of monthly factor returns onto the lagged realized variances. We obtain a positive trade-off for alternative versions of the profitability and investment factors employed in the literature. Such relationship is robust to the presence of the realized covariance (with the market factor) in the forecasting regressions, which represents consistency with Merton's ICAPM. Critically, we obtain an insignificant risk-return relationship for the market factor. The factor risk-return trade-off tends to be weaker among most international equity markets. The out-of-sample forecasting power (of factor variances for own future returns) tends to be economically significant for the investment and profitability factors. Overall, our results suggest that the time-series risk-return trade-off is substantially stronger within segments of the stock market than for the whole.
我们通过估计月度因素回报对滞后实现方差的单变量预测回归来检验几个多空股票因素之间的时间序列风险回报权衡。我们在文献中采用的盈利能力和投资因素的替代版本中获得了一个积极的权衡。这种关系对预测回归中实现的协方差(与市场因素)的存在具有鲁棒性,这与Merton的ICAPM一致。关键是,我们得到了市场因素的不显著的风险-收益关系。在大多数国际股票市场中,风险回报权衡的因素往往较弱。样本外预测能力(因子方差对自身未来收益的预测能力)对于投资和盈利因素往往具有经济意义。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,时间序列风险回报权衡在股票市场的细分市场中比在整个市场中要强得多。
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引用次数: 1
Predictive Regressions under Arbitrary Persistence and Stock Return Predictability 任意持续性下的预测回归与股票收益可预测性
Pub Date : 2021-03-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3802472
Daniel D. Borup, B. Christensen, Yunus Emre Ergemen
We present a novel approach to analyzing stock return predictability that accommodates (i) arbitrary predictor persistence, (ii) panels with common factors, (iii) multiple predictors, (iv) short- and long-horizon analysis, and relies on standard inference from least-squares estimation of a suitably adjusted predictive regression. We analyze US and international equity premia and find that dividend- and earnings-related price ratios have negligible predictive power over long horizons, whereas the dividend yield has considerable predictive power over short horizons, with positive coefficients, consistent with present value theory. Long-term government bond yields exhibit predictive power over all horizons from one month through five years.
我们提出了一种分析股票收益可预测性的新方法,该方法适用于(i)任意预测因子持久性,(ii)具有共同因素的面板,(iii)多个预测因子,(iv)短期和长期分析,并依赖于适当调整的预测回归的最小二乘估计的标准推断。我们分析了美国和国际股票溢价,发现与股息和收益相关的价格比率在长期范围内具有可忽略不计的预测能力,而股息收益率在短期内具有相当大的预测能力,具有正系数,与现值理论一致。长期政府债券收益率在从一个月到5年的所有期限内都表现出预测能力。
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引用次数: 0
News and Trading After Hours 新闻和盘后交易
Pub Date : 2021-03-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3796812
Bei Cui, A. Gozluklu
This paper explores after-hours trading (AHT) in U.S. equity markets. We collect a large set of news releases during AHT and document their effect on AHT activity and market quality. Three types of news events attract most AHT: earnings announcements, insider trades, and index reconstitutions. The majority of earnings announcements shift to AHT over time. Corporate insiders are more likely to delay their sales filings until markets close. Index reconstitutions during AHT lead to volume surge and contribute to the negative CAPM slope. During the Covid-19 pandemic, retail access (via Robinhood platform) leads to a sharp increase in after-hours trades.
本文探讨了美国股票市场的盘后交易(AHT)。我们在AHT期间收集了大量的新闻发布,并记录了它们对AHT活动和市场质量的影响。三种类型的新闻事件最吸引AHT:收益公告,内幕交易和指数重组。随着时间的推移,大多数收益公告都转向了AHT。企业内部人士更有可能将出售申报推迟到市场收盘。AHT期间的指数重构导致交易量激增,并导致负CAPM斜率。在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间,零售渠道(通过罗宾汉平台)导致盘后交易大幅增加。
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引用次数: 2
High-Frequency Arbitrage and Market Illiquidity 高频套利和市场流动性不足
Pub Date : 2021-01-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3768926
Claudia E. Moise
During times of market stress, arbitrage capital cannot be timely deployed, and assets trade away from fundamentals. This gives rise to transitory price volatility, a latent factor that signals difficulties in the market-making process. I propose a market-wide illiquidity measure based on SPY's transitory volatility (SPY is an ETF that tracks the S&P500). While related to existing illiquidity proxies, the proposed measure provides additional information. It also captures commonality in stock-level illiquidity, and it is priced in the market. An investment strategy based on it earns, on average, a 8.64% annual return. This premium cannot be explained by classical risk factors, including existing illiquidity measures.
在市场紧张时期,套利资本无法及时配置,资产交易偏离基本面。这导致了短暂的价格波动,这是一个潜在的因素,表明在做市过程中存在困难。我提出了一种基于SPY的临时波动率(SPY是跟踪标准普尔500指数的ETF)的全市场非流动性指标。虽然与现有的非流动性代理有关,但拟议的措施提供了额外的信息。它还抓住了股票层面流动性不足的共性,并在市场中定价。以它为基础的投资策略平均年回报率为8.64%。这种溢价不能用传统的风险因素来解释,包括现有的非流动性措施。
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引用次数: 0
President’s Confidence and the Stock Market Performance 总统信心与股市表现
Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3758905
Yosef Bonaparte
We show that the stock market pricing the presidential margin of victory in a nonlinear concave fashion, with a higher price for medium than slight or crushing victories. We conjecture that the margin of victory reflects president confidence and the ability to execute policies. A small margin sends instability signal to financial markets as a lack of confidence president, whereas a decisive victory provides excessive ‘political capital’ and a bold mandate to execute policies, which turns the president to be overconfident. Furthermore, margin of victory commoves with financial and political indicators: the greater the margin of victory the larger the policy uncertainty and partisan conflict. Our inference shed light on “the presidential puzzle,” as many Republican presidents won decisively (Raegan twice, Nixon, etc.), while more Democrats with medium victories. Collectively, president’s confidence affects the stock market and is a key exogenous determinant to consider.
我们表明,股票市场以非线性凹形方式定价总统的胜利幅度,中等的价格高于轻微或压倒性的胜利。我们推测,这种优势反映了总统的自信和执行政策的能力。微弱的优势会给金融市场带来不稳定的信号,成为对总统缺乏信心的信号,而决定性的胜利则会给总统提供过多的“政治资本”和大胆的政策执行授权,从而使总统变得过于自信。此外,胜差与经济和政治指标一致:胜差越大,政策的不确定性和党派冲突就越大。我们的推断揭示了“总统之谜”,因为许多共和党总统赢得了决定性的胜利(雷根两次,尼克松等),而更多的民主党人获得了中等程度的胜利。总的来说,总统的信心影响股市,是一个关键的外生决定因素考虑。
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引用次数: 1
Shareholder-Creditor Conflicts and Limits to Arbitrage: Evidence From the Equity Lending Market 股东-债权人冲突与套利限制:来自股权借贷市场的证据
Pub Date : 2020-12-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3747035
Yongqiang Chu, Lu Lin, P. Saffi, Jason Sturgess
We show that conflicts of interests between shareholders and creditors affect limits-to-arbitrage through short-sale constraints. Using mergers of financial institutions as a shock to dual ownership, we show that dual holdings of debt and equity increases equity lending supply and reduces short-sale constraints. Shareholders are also less likely to restrict lending supply before shareholder votes when dual holders are present. Further, dual holdings are associated with faster corrections of mispricing, consistent with lower shareholder-creditor conflicts enhancing market efficiency. Our results suggest that shareholder-creditor conflicts give rise to limits to arbitrage and have a real effect on market efficiency.
我们证明了股东和债权人之间的利益冲突通过卖空约束影响套利限制。利用金融机构合并作为对双重所有权的冲击,我们表明债务和股权的双重持有增加了股权贷款供应并减少了卖空约束。当双重股东在场时,股东在股东投票前限制贷款供应的可能性也较小。此外,双重持有与更快地修正错误定价有关,这与降低股东-债权人冲突提高市场效率相一致。我们的研究结果表明,股东-债权人冲突会限制套利,并对市场效率产生实际影响。
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引用次数: 2
Forecasting Financial Crashes: A Dynamic Risk Management Approach 预测金融危机:动态风险管理方法
Pub Date : 2020-12-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3744816
J-C Gerlach, Dongshuai Zhao, CFA, D. Sornette
Since 2009, stock markets have resided in a long bull market regime. Passive investment strategies have succeeded during this low-volatility growth period. From 2018 on, however, there was a transition into a more volatile market environment interspersed by corrections increasing in amplitude and frequency. This calls for more adaptive dynamic risk management strategies, as opposed to static buy-and-hold strategies. To hedge against market drawdowns, the greatest source of risk that should accurately be estimated is crash risk. This article applies the Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model of endogenous asset price bubbles to monitor crash risk. The model is calibrated to 15 years market history for five relevant equity country indices. Particular emphasis is put on the US S&P 500 Composite Index and the recent market history of the "Corona" year 2020. The results show that relevant historical bubble events, including the Corona crash, could be detected with the model and derived indicators. Many of these events were predicted in advance in monthly reports by the Financial Crisis Observatory (FCO) at ETH Zurich. The Corona crash, as the most recent event of interest, is discussed in further detail. Our conclusion is that unsustainable price dynamics leading to an unstable bubble, fuelled by quantitative easing and other policies, already existed well before the pandemic started. Thus, the bubble bursting in February 2020 as a reaction to the Corona pandemic was of endogenous nature and burst in response to the exogenous Corona crisis, which was predictable to some degree based on the endogenous price dynamics. Following the crash, a fast recovery of the price to pre-crisis levels ensued in the following months. This lets us conclude that, as long as the underlying origins and the macroeconomic environment that created this bubble do not change, the bubble will continue to grow and potentially spread to other sectors. This may cause even more hectic market behaviour, overreaction and volatile corrections in the future.
自2009年以来,股市一直处于长期牛市状态。被动投资策略在这一低波动性增长时期取得了成功。然而,从2018年开始,市场进入了一个更加动荡的市场环境,其间穿插着幅度和频率增加的修正。这需要更具适应性的动态风险管理策略,而不是静态的买入并持有策略。为了对冲市场下跌,应该准确估计的最大风险来源是崩盘风险。本文应用内生资产价格泡沫的对数周期幂律奇点(LPPLS)模型来监测崩盘风险。该模型是根据5个相关国家股票指数的15年市场历史进行校准的。特别强调的是美国标准普尔500综合指数和“Corona”2020年的近期市场历史。结果表明,该模型和衍生指标可以检测到相关的历史泡沫事件,包括Corona崩溃。苏黎世联邦理工学院的金融危机观察站(FCO)在月度报告中提前预测了其中的许多事件。作为最近有趣的事件,我们将进一步详细讨论Corona的崩溃。我们的结论是,在量化宽松和其他政策的推动下,导致不稳定泡沫的不可持续的价格动态在大流行开始之前就已经存在。因此,作为对冠状病毒大流行的反应,2020年2月的泡沫破裂具有内生性质,是对外源性冠状病毒危机的反应,而外源性危机在一定程度上是可以根据内生价格动态预测的。在崩盘之后的几个月里,金价迅速回升至危机前的水平。这让我们得出结论,只要产生泡沫的根本根源和宏观经济环境没有改变,泡沫就会继续增长,并有可能蔓延到其他领域。这可能会导致未来市场行为更加混乱、反应过度和波动性调整。
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引用次数: 0
When Does Attention Matter? The Effect of Investor Attention on Stock Market Volatility Around News Releases 什么时候注意力很重要?投资者关注对新闻发布前后股市波动的影响
Pub Date : 2020-11-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3506720
Daniele Ballinari, F. Audrino, Fabio Sigrist
We empirically investigate how retail and institutional investor attention is related to the way stock markets process information. With a focus on 360 US stocks in the S&P 500 universe, our results show that higher retail investors' attention around news releases increases the post-announcement stock return volatility, whereas institutional investor attention has a small but negative impact on volatility on days following news releases on average over the cross-section of companies. These findings are in line with the hypotheses that attention of retail investors slows price-adjustments to new information and attention of institutional investors results in the opposite reaction. We show that these effects are heterogeneous in the type of news and the topic of the information being released. A portfolio allocation application highlights that these results are not only statistically significant but also sizeable in economic terms and can lead to an overperformance as large as dozens of basis points.
我们实证研究了散户和机构投资者的注意力如何与股票市场处理信息的方式相关。通过对标普500指数中的360只美国股票的关注,我们的研究结果表明,散户投资者对新闻发布的关注增加了新闻发布后股票回报的波动性,而机构投资者的关注对新闻发布后几天的平均波动性有很小但负面的影响。这些发现与假设一致,即散户投资者的关注减缓了对新信息的价格调整,而机构投资者的关注则导致相反的反应。我们表明,这些影响在新闻类型和信息发布的主题上是异质的。一个投资组合配置应用程序强调,这些结果不仅在统计上显著,而且在经济方面也相当可观,可能导致高达数十个基点的超额表现。
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引用次数: 9
Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Indices during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from USA and Canada COVID-19大流行期间的宏观经济变量和股票市场指数:来自美国和加拿大的证据
Pub Date : 2020-10-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3712419
M. M. Rahman, Md. Mominur Rahman, Mohammad Zoynul Abedin
Using Pooled Ordinary Least Square (Pooled OLS) on a daily panel dataset from the US and Canada from January 22 to September 22, 2020, this study examines the impact of macroeconomic indicators impact on the stock market indices during the COVID-19 pandemic. We improved the interaction relationship of government action variables with the trend in COVID-19 affected and death cases in finding the reaction of stock market returns. We find that the industrial production and money supply significantly influence the stock market return during this pandemic. As there is a paucity of literature together with unclear findings, we improved that social distancing and government economic support significantly affect the stock market returns. Further, this study implies that the interaction of social distancing with the trend in COVID-19 affected cases reduces the adverse reaction of stock market returns during this pandemic. But the interaction of social distancing with the trend in COVID-19 death cases enters negative and significant, suggesting that social distancing action with the trend in death cases of COVID-19 doesn’t weaken the inverse reaction of stock market returns. During this pandemic period, this study can be a policy dialog for the government, policymakers, researchers, and regulatory bodies.
本研究利用汇集普通最小二乘(Pooled OLS)对2020年1月22日至9月22日来自美国和加拿大的每日面板数据集进行分析,检验了2019冠状病毒病大流行期间宏观经济指标对股市指数的影响。在寻找股市收益的反应时,我们改进了政府行为变量与COVID-19感染趋势和死亡病例的交互关系。我们发现,在疫情期间,工业生产和货币供应量显著影响股市收益。由于文献较少,研究结果不明确,我们改进了社会距离和政府经济支持对股市收益的显著影响。此外,该研究表明,社交距离与COVID-19感染病例趋势的相互作用降低了疫情期间股市回报的不良反应。但社交距离与COVID-19死亡病例趋势的交互作用为负且显著,表明社交距离与COVID-19死亡病例趋势的交互作用并未减弱股市收益的逆反应。在这次大流行期间,这项研究可以成为政府、决策者、研究人员和监管机构的政策对话。
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引用次数: 0
Determinants of Hedge Fund Investment in Corporate Endgames 公司末期对冲基金投资的决定因素
Pub Date : 2020-10-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3712037
Ludwig Dobmeier, Renata Lavrova, B. Schwetzler
Under German law the corporate endgame process of obtaining full control over a company offers multiple investment opportunities for investors with high investment flexibility, and is therefore particularly attractive to hedge funds. This paper investigates the determinants of hedge fund investment in corporate endgame processes based on a sample of 76 endgame situations of publicly listed German companies and investment data of 326 hedge funds. Examining characteristics of investment targets, we find that hedge funds invest in companies with a non-dominant majority owner and high stake of index funds as latter’s inability to react in change of control situations creates a supportive investment environment for hedge funds. Hedge funds are most likely to invest after takeover consummation and before announcement of a new endgame transaction. Investigating the determinants of ongoing engagement after initial investment, we find that the presence of other institutional investors, especially hedge funds positively affects engagement likelihood, serving as a validation of the own investment approach. Abnormal performance and trading liquidity of target stock also positively affect hedge funds’ engagement. The results indicate that the endgame process in Germany is an attractive investment opportunity for hedge funds, while hedge fund involvement also adds complexity to the corporate control process.
根据德国法律,企业获得对一家公司的完全控制权的最后阶段为具有高度投资灵活性的投资者提供了多种投资机会,因此对对冲基金特别有吸引力。本文以76家德国上市公司的末期情况为样本,利用326家对冲基金的投资数据,研究了对冲基金在公司末期过程中的投资决定因素。通过分析投资对象的特征,我们发现对冲基金投资于非显性多数股东和指数基金高持股的公司,因为指数基金在控制权变化情况下无法做出反应,这为对冲基金创造了一个支持性的投资环境。对冲基金最有可能在收购完成后、新的终局交易宣布之前进行投资。在调查初始投资后持续参与的决定因素时,我们发现其他机构投资者(尤其是对冲基金)的存在对参与可能性产生了积极影响,从而对自己的投资方式起到了验证作用。目标股的异常业绩和交易流动性对对冲基金的参与也有正向影响。研究结果表明,德国的终局过程对对冲基金来说是一个有吸引力的投资机会,而对冲基金的参与也增加了公司控制过程的复杂性。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
ERN: Stock Market Risk (Topic)
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