How the Death Rate Affects the Aging of the US Population

Abstract

over in the US was 8.2%. By 2019, that proportion had increased to 15.8%. In 2017, the US Census projected that by 2034 the population of people 65+ will be larger than the population of people under 18.1 US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo commented that aging demographics were going to hit the country “like a ton of bricks.”2 Vespa (2018) predicts greater demand for healthcare, in-home caregiving, and assisted living facilities, as well as problems for social security. The age distribution of the population is affected by the birth rate, death rate, and net migration rate. If the inflow of immigrants exceeds the outflow, and if immigrants are on average younger than citizens, then the population would get younger. Similarly, higher birth rates imply that the population will get younger. Much of the discussion on US population aging has been on birth rates and immigration (Howard, 2019; Murray, 2021; and Williams, 2020). We focus on the effect of death rates on the increased average age of the US population. From 1950 to 2019, the death rate, calculated as the number of people per 1,000 who die each year divided by How the Death Rate Affects the Aging of the US Population