Theta model forecasts of quarterly and monthly dwelling prices in the UK

Elli Pagourtzi, Vassilis Assimakopoulos, Akrivi Litsa
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引用次数: 5

Abstract

The current paper is an expansion of the paper ‘Theta Model Forecasts Real Estate Values’, presented at the European Real Estate Society (ERES) Conference, 2006. In the former paper, the Theta method was compared with other forecasting methods in forecasting quarterly housing prices in the UK. The theta method had then produced the best forecasts, on average, with the smallest mean errors. Additional data are used here, representing the total average dwelling prices in the UK, and are organized into months, from January 1983 up to September 2006. This paper examines the present state of the UK housing market and tests the theta method on the new monthly data. The time-series data used for forecasting are again provided from the Halifax House Price Index, and cover different categories of buyers (all, first-time buyers and home movers) and houses (all, new and existing). Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Theta模型预测了英国季度和月度住宅价格
当前的论文是在2006年欧洲房地产协会(ERES)会议上发表的论文“Theta模型预测房地产价值”的扩展。在前一篇论文中,Theta方法与其他预测方法在预测英国季度房价方面进行了比较。平均而言,θ方法产生了最好的预测,平均误差最小。这里使用了额外的数据,代表了英国的总平均住宅价格,并按月组织,从1983年1月到2006年9月。本文考察了英国房地产市场的现状,并在新的月度数据上测试了theta方法。用于预测的时间序列数据再次来自哈利法克斯房价指数,涵盖了不同类别的买家(所有,首次购房者和搬家者)和房屋(所有,新房和现房)。版权所有©2007 John Wiley &儿子,有限公司
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