A Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Reasoning Method for Analysing the Necessity of Super Slow Steaming under Uncertainty: Containership

Abstract

The global economic and financial conditions in 2010 and 2011 were positive and the business trade grew at about twice of the rate of that in 2009. The container shipping players started to enjoy a new chapter of international business trade having struggled to operate their vessels since 2008. So we now have to consider if the shipping business will return to its old strategy? What will happen to the container shipping sector in 10 years from now still remains uncertain. Recently, the uncertain situation globally has been giving shipping companies in difficulty the opportunity to make decision as to whether it is necessary to use super slow steaming for containerships. Therefore, the aim of this study is to analyse the necessity of super slow steaming on containerships despite such uncertainty. A Fuzzy Rule-based Bayesian Reasoning method has been used which incorporates the membership function and 14 selected nodes. Finally, the outcome of this study is 48 rules which have been proposed to assist shipping companies in their decision making processes when dealing with the dynamic business environment. Each rule gives a clear-cut understanding of the result which is able to be applied to real situations the containership industry faces.