CAN POLAND BUILD CONVENTIONAL DETERRENCE CAPABILITY AGAINST RUSSIA?

Abstract

Russian military intervention in Ukraine has discredited the paradigm of low probability of armed conflict in Europe in the short and medium term. In Poland's case, the only adversary is Russia, enjoying the quantitative military advantage and, in certain cases, also the qualitative superiority. The aim of the paper is to analyse the possibilities to establish conventional deterrence capability against Russia. The study has been carried out from the military perspective, although the political context has been also portrayed. The analysis is designed as a confrontation of main assumptions of the deterrence concept with specific circumstance of Polish-Russian military relations. It leads to the evaluation of particular, available for Poland, measures as effective tools of deterrence.