The measurement of dynamic relationship between urban land expansion and economic growth in Chongqing

Chunyang Lu, F. Wen, Qing-yuan Yang
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Abstract

This paper empirically analyzed the relationship between construction land expansion and economic growth in Chongqing by co-integration test, Granger causality analysis and impulse response. The results show that: (1) There is a long-run cointegrated relationship between construction land expansion and economic growth, and the change of them have the homogeneity; (2) Economic growth is the Granger cause of construction land expansion, while construction land expansion is not the Granger cause of economic growth; (3) Construction land expansion makes a small contribution to economic growth, and with lag phase prolonged, the contribution rate becomes stable, and economic growth is significantly affected by its own rather than by construction land expansion; (4) The contribution rate of economic growth to construction land expansion reaches up to more than 90%, and economic growth is the dominant factor which drives the expansion of construction land.
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重庆城市用地扩张与经济增长动态关系测度
本文运用协整检验、格兰杰因果分析和脉冲响应等方法对重庆市建设用地扩张与经济增长的关系进行实证分析。结果表明:(1)建设用地扩张与经济增长之间存在长期协整关系,且二者变化具有同质性;(2)经济增长是建设用地扩张的格兰杰原因,建设用地扩张不是经济增长的格兰杰原因;(3)建设用地扩张对经济增长的贡献率较小,随着滞后期的延长,贡献率趋于稳定,经济增长受建设用地扩张的影响大于受建设用地扩张的影响;(4)经济增长对建设用地扩张的贡献率高达90%以上,经济增长是推动建设用地扩张的主导因素。
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