A perspective on simulation models as decision aids

Abstract

Simulation models have come to represent the epitome of analytic input to the rational decision maker. Simulation has become a highly sophisticated tool available within an information system which supports decision making in an organization, public or private. The classic use of simulation is to study complex systems whose behavior and features are representable by straightforward analytic relationships. A simple question arises: What is the performance of simulation models as decision aids? This paper contends that a simulation model qua model is less of an aid to decision making than is the process of implementing the model. This thesis is based on (1) the literature where it is not organized and stated explicitly as such. and (2) an 18 month study of the utilization of three computer simulation models in the Philadelphia Emergency Medical Services System. Based on our study, a user-responsive information system to support decision making would provide information in a staged manner according to the level of sophistication needed. The level of sophistication is determined by a complex mosaic of problem area, decision-maker information utilization characteristics, decision-making situation, and decision-making process. This suggests programmatic approaches to information system design which yield effective, efficient aids to decision making.