Modeling COVID-19 for lifting non-pharmaceutical interventions

Matt Koehler, David M. Slater, G. Jacyna, James R. Thompson
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

As a result of the COVID-19 worldwide pandemic, the United States instituted various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in an effort to the slow the spread of the disease. Although necessary for public safety, these NPIs can also have deleterious effects on the economy of a nation. State and federal leaders need tools that provide insight into which combination of NPIs will have the greatest impact on slowing the disease and at what point in time it is reasonably safe to start lifting these restrictions to everyday life. In the present work, we outline a modeling process that incorporates the parameters of the disease, the effects of NPIs, and the characteristics of individual communities to offer insight into when and to what degree certain NPIs should be instituted or lifted based on the progression of a given outbreak of COVID-19.
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模拟COVID-19以解除非药物干预措施
由于COVID-19全球大流行,美国制定了各种非药物干预措施(NPIs),以减缓疾病的传播。这些npi虽然对公共安全是必要的,但也可能对一个国家的经济产生有害影响。州和联邦领导人需要工具,以便深入了解哪些国家行动计划组合将对减缓疾病产生最大影响,以及在什么时候开始取消对日常生活的这些限制是合理安全的。在目前的工作中,我们概述了一个建模过程,该过程结合了疾病的参数、npi的影响和个别社区的特征,以便根据给定的COVID-19爆发的进展,深入了解何时以及在多大程度上应该建立或取消某些npi。
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