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Conflicting Information and Compliance with COVID-19 Behavioral Recommendations 相互矛盾的信息和遵守COVID-19行为建议
Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4911
A. Naugle, Fred Rothganger, Stephen Verzi, Casey Doyle
The prevalence of COVID-19 is shaped by behavioral responses to recommendations and warnings. Available information on the disease determines the population’s perception of danger and thus its behavior;this information changes dynamically, and different sources may report conflicting information. We study the feedback between disease, information, and stay-at-home behavior using a hybrid agent-based-system dynamics model that incorporates evolving trust in sources of information. We use this model to investigate how divergent reporting and conflicting information can alter the trajectory of a public health crisis. The model shows that divergent reporting not only alters disease prevalence over time, but also increases polarization of the population’s behaviors and trust in different sources of information. © 2022, University of Surrey. All rights reserved.
COVID-19的流行受到对建议和警告的行为反应的影响。关于疾病的现有信息决定了人们对危险的感知,从而决定了人们的行为;这些信息是动态变化的,不同的来源可能报告相互矛盾的信息。我们研究了疾病、信息和居家行为之间的反馈,使用了一个混合的基于代理的系统动力学模型,该模型包含了对信息来源的不断发展的信任。我们使用这个模型来调查不同的报告和相互冲突的信息如何改变公共卫生危机的轨迹。该模型表明,随着时间的推移,不同的报告不仅改变了疾病的患病率,而且增加了人口行为的两极分化和对不同信息来源的信任。©2022,萨里大学。版权所有。
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引用次数: 1
Hybrid Approach for Modelling the Uptake of Residential Solar PV Systems, with Case Study Application in Melbourne, Australia 模拟住宅太阳能光伏系统吸收的混合方法,在澳大利亚墨尔本的案例研究应用
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4921
M. Moglia, C. Nygaard, Stephen Glackin, S. Cook, S. Tapsuwan
: Understanding the processes of residential solar PV uptake is critical to developing planning and policy energy transition pathways. This paper outlines a novel hybrid Agent-Based-Modelling/statistical adoption prediction framework that addresses several drawbacks in current modelling approaches. Specifically, we extend the capabilities of similar previous models and incorporate empirical data, behavioural theory, social networks and explicitly considers the spatial context. We provide empirical data affecting households’ propensity to adopt, including perceptions of solar PV systems, the role of tenure and urban location. We demonstrate the approach in the context of Melbourne metropolitan region, Australia; and draw on housing approval data to demonstrate the role of housing construction in accelerating adoption. Finally, we explore the approach’s validity against real-world data with promising results that also indicate key areas for further research and improvement.
了解住宅太阳能光伏吸收的过程对于制定能源转型路径的规划和政策至关重要。本文概述了一种新的基于智能体的建模/统计采用混合预测框架,该框架解决了当前建模方法中的几个缺点。具体而言,我们扩展了类似先前模型的功能,并结合了经验数据、行为理论、社会网络,并明确考虑了空间背景。我们提供了影响家庭采用太阳能光伏系统的倾向的经验数据,包括对太阳能光伏系统的看法,使用权和城市位置的作用。我们在澳大利亚墨尔本大都市区的背景下展示了这种方法;并利用住房审批数据来论证住房建设对加快收养的作用。最后,我们探讨了该方法对现实世界数据的有效性,并获得了有希望的结果,也表明了进一步研究和改进的关键领域。
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引用次数: 0
The Ethics of Agent-Based Social Simulation 基于主体的社会模拟的伦理学
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4907
D. Anzola, Peter Barbrook-Johnson, N. Gilbert
: The academic study and the applied use of agent-based modelling of social processes has matured considerably over the last thirty years. The time is now right to engage seriously with the ethics and responsible practice of agent-based social simulation. In this paper, we first outline the many reasons why it is appropriate to explore an ethics of agent-based modelling and how ethical issues arise in its practice and organisation. We go on to discuss different approaches to standardisation as a way of supporting responsible practice. Some of the main conclusions are organised as provisions in a draft code of ethics. We intend for this draft to be further developed by the community before being adopted by individuals and groups within the field informally or formally.
在过去的三十年里,基于主体的社会过程建模的学术研究和应用已经相当成熟。现在是时候认真对待基于主体的社会模拟的道德和负责任的实践了。在本文中,我们首先概述了为什么探索基于主体的建模伦理是合适的,以及道德问题在其实践和组织中是如何产生的许多原因。我们继续讨论标准化的不同方法,作为支持负责任实践的一种方式。一些主要结论被组织成道德守则草案的规定。我们打算在被该领域内的个人和团体非正式或正式采用之前,由社区进一步发展该草案。
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引用次数: 1
Integrating Equity Considerations into Agent-Based Modeling: A Conceptual Framework and Practical Guidance 将公平考虑纳入基于主体的建模:一个概念框架和实践指导
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4816
T. Williams, Daniel G. Brown, S. Guikema, T. Logan, N. Magliocca, Birgit Müller, C. Steger
: Advancing equity is a complex challenge for society, science, and policy. Agent-based models are increasingly used as scientific tools to advance understanding of systems, inform decision-making, and share knowledge. Yet, equity has not received due attention within the agent-based modeling (ABM) literature. In this paper, wedevelopaconceptualframeworkandprovideguidanceforintegratingequityconsiderationsintoABM researchandmodelingpractice. TheframeworkconceptualizesABMasinterfacingwithequityoutcomesattwo levels(thescience-societyinterfaceandwithinthemodelitself)andthemodelerasa filter and lens thatprojects knowledge between the target system and the model. Within the framework, we outline three complementary, equity-advancing action pathways: (1) engage stakeholders, (2) acknowledge positionality and bias, and (3) assessequitywithagent-basedmodels. ForPathway1,wesummarizeexistingguidancewithintheparticipatory modeling literature. For Pathway 2, we introduce the positionality and bias document as a tool to promote modeler and stakeholder reflexivity throughout the modeling process. For Pathway 3, we synthesize a typology of approaches for modeling equity and offer a set of preliminary suggestions for best practice. By engaging with these action pathways, modelers both reduce the risks of inadvertently perpetuating inequity and harness the opportunities for ABM to play a larger role in creating a more equitable future.
促进公平对社会、科学和政策都是一项复杂的挑战。基于主体的模型越来越多地被用作科学工具,以促进对系统的理解,为决策提供信息,并共享知识。然而,在基于主体的建模(ABM)文献中,公平性并没有得到应有的重视。本文构建了一个概念框架,为将公平考虑纳入abm研究和建模实践提供了指导。该框架概念化了两个层次(科学-社会接口和模型本身)的质量结果,而模型则是在目标系统和模型之间投射知识的过滤器和透镜。在该框架内,我们概述了三个互补的、促进公平的行动途径:(1)吸引利益相关者;(2)承认立场和偏见;(3)使用基于代理的模型进行评估。对于pathway1,我们总结了参与式建模文献中的现有指导。对于路径2,我们引入了位置性和偏见文档,作为在整个建模过程中促进建模者和利益相关者反身性的工具。对于途径3,我们综合了公平建模方法的类型,并为最佳实践提供了一组初步建议。通过参与这些行动途径,建模者既降低了无意中延续不平等的风险,又利用了ABM在创造更公平的未来方面发挥更大作用的机会。
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引用次数: 6
An Integrated Ecological-Social Simulation Model of Farmer Decisions and Cropping System Performance in the Rolling Pampas (Argentina) 阿根廷潘帕斯草原农户决策与种植制度绩效的生态-社会综合模拟模型
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4772
S. Pessah, D. Ferraro, D. Blanco, R. Castro
Changes in agricultural systems are a multi-causal process involving climate change, globalization and technological change. These complex interactions regulate the landscape transformation process by imposing landuseandcover change (LUCC)dynamics. Inorder tobetterunderstandand forecast theLUCCprocess we developed a spatially explicit agent-based model in the form of a Cellular Automata: the AgroDEVS model. The model was designed to project viable LUCC dynamics along with their associated economic and environmental changes. AgroDEVS is structured with behavioral rules and functions representing a) crop yields, b) weather conditions, c) economic profits, d) farmer preferences, e) adoption of technology levels and f) natural resource consumption based on embodied energy accounting. Using data from a typical location of the Pampa region (Argentina) for the period 1988-2015, simulation exercises showed that economic goals were achieved, on average, each 6 out of 10 years, but environmental thresholds were only achieved in 1.9 out of 10 years. In a set of 50-years simulations, LUCC patterns converge quickly towards the most profitable crop sequences, with no noticeable trade-o between economic and environmental conditions.
农业系统的变化是一个涉及气候变化、全球化和技术变化的多原因过程。这些复杂的相互作用通过施加土地利用和覆被变化(LUCC)动态来调节景观转化过程。为了更好地理解和预测ucc过程,我们以元胞自动机的形式开发了一个空间显式的基于主体的模型:AgroDEVS模型。该模型旨在预测可行的土地利用/土地覆盖变化动态及其相关的经济和环境变化。AgroDEVS的结构具有行为规则和功能,代表a)作物产量,b)天气条件,c)经济利润,d)农民偏好,e)采用技术水平,f)基于隐含能源核算的自然资源消耗。利用1988-2015年潘帕草原地区(阿根廷)典型地区的数据,模拟表明,平均每10年有6年实现了经济目标,但每10年只有1.9年实现了环境阈值。在一组50年的模拟中,土地覆盖变化模式迅速向最有利可图的作物序列靠拢,经济和环境条件之间没有明显的贸易。
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引用次数: 1
An Agent-Based Model of Motor Insurance Customer Behaviour in the UK with Word of Mouth 基于代理的英国汽车保险客户口碑行为模型
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4768
Rei England, Iqbal Owadally, D. Wright
: Attracting and retaining loyal customers is a key driver of insurance profit. An important factor is the customers’opinionofaninsurer’sservicequality. Ifacustomerhasabadexperiencewithaninsurer,theywillbe less likely to buy from them again. Word-of-mouth networks allow information to spread between customers. In this paper we build an agent-based model with two types of agents: customers and insurers. Insurers are price-takers who choose how much to spend on their service quality, and customers evaluate insurers based on premium, brand preference, and their perceived service quality. Customers are also connected in a small-world network and may share their opinions with their network. We find that the existence of the network acts as a persistent memory, causing a systemic bias whereby an insurer’s early reputation achieved by random chance tends to persist and leads to unequal market shares. This occurs even when the transmission of information is very low. This suggests that newer insurers might benefit more from a higher service quality as they build their reputation. Insurers with a higher service quality earn more profit, even when the customer preference for better service quality is small. The UK regulator is intending to ban the practice of charging new customers less than renewing customers. When the model is run with this scenario, the retention rates increase substantially and there is less movement away from insurers with a good initial reputation. This increases the skewness in market concentrations, but there is a greater incentive for good service quality.
吸引和留住忠实客户是保险公司盈利的关键驱动力。客户对保险公司服务公平性的看法是影响保险公司服务公平性的一个重要因素。如果客户在保险公司有过不愉快的经历,他们就不太可能再次购买保险。口碑网络允许信息在顾客之间传播。在本文中,我们建立了一个基于agent的模型,其中包含两种类型的agent:客户和保险公司。保险公司是价格接受者,他们选择在服务质量上花多少钱,客户根据保费、品牌偏好和他们感知到的服务质量来评估保险公司。客户也连接在一个小世界网络中,并可能与他们的网络分享他们的意见。我们发现,网络的存在作为一种持久的记忆,导致了一种系统性偏见,即保险公司通过随机机会获得的早期声誉倾向于持续存在,并导致不平等的市场份额。即使在信息传输非常低的情况下,这种情况也会发生。这表明新成立的保险公司可能会从更高的服务质量中获益,因为他们建立了自己的声誉。服务质量越高的保险公司,即使客户对服务质量的偏好越低,也能获得更多的利润。英国监管机构打算禁止向新客户收取低于老客户费用的做法。当模型在这种情况下运行时,保留率大幅提高,并且从最初声誉良好的保险公司流失的人数减少。这增加了市场集中度的不平衡,但对优质服务的激励更大。
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引用次数: 4
Calibrating Agent-Based Models Using Uncertainty Quantification Methods 使用不确定性量化方法校准基于agent的模型
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4791
J. McCulloch, Jiaqi Ge, Jonathan A. Ward, A. Heppenstall, J. Gareth Polhill, N. Malleson
: Agent-based models (ABMs) can be found across a number of diverse application areas ranging from simulating consumer behaviour to infectious disease modelling. Part of their popularity is due to their ability to simulateindividualbehavioursanddecisionsoverspaceandtime. However, whilstthereareplentifulexamples within the academic literature, these models are only beginning to make an impact within policy areas. Whilst frameworks such as NetLogo make the creation of ABMs relatively easy, a number of key methodological issues, including the quantification of uncertainty, remain. In this paper we draw on state-of-the-art approaches from the fields of uncertainty quantification and model optimisation to describe a novel framework for the calibration of ABMs using History Matching and Approximate Bayesian Computation. The utility of the framework is demonstrated on three example models of increasing complexity: (i) Sugarscape to illustrate the approach on a toy example; (ii) a model of the movement of birds to explore the efficacy of our framework and compare it to alternative calibration approaches and; (iii) the RISC model of farmer decision making to demonstrate its value in a real application. The results highlight the efficiency and accuracy with which this approach can be used to calibrate ABMs. This method can readily be applied to local or national-scale ABMs, such as those linked to the creation or tailoring of key policy decisions.
基于主体的模型可以在许多不同的应用领域中找到,从模拟消费者行为到传染病建模。它们受欢迎的部分原因是它们能够模拟个人行为和跨越时空的决策。然而,尽管在学术文献中有大量的例子,这些模型才刚刚开始在政策领域产生影响。虽然NetLogo之类的框架使ABMs的创建相对容易,但仍然存在一些关键的方法问题,包括不确定性的量化。在本文中,我们借鉴了不确定性量化和模型优化领域的最新方法,描述了使用历史匹配和近似贝叶斯计算校准ABMs的新框架。通过三个日益复杂的示例模型演示了该框架的实用性:(i) Sugarscape以一个玩具示例来说明该方法;(ii)建立雀鸟运动模式,以探讨我们的架构的成效,并与其他校正方法作比较;(iii)农户决策的RISC模型,以证明其在实际应用中的价值。结果表明,该方法可用于标定ABMs的效率和准确性。这种方法可以很容易地应用于地方或国家规模的abm,例如那些与制定或调整关键政策决定有关的abm。
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引用次数: 7
Egalitarian Sharing Explains Food Distributions in a Small-Scale Society 平等分享解释了小规模社会中的食物分配
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4835
M. Pinheiro
: Among social anthropologists, there is virtual consensus that the food-sharing practices of small-scale non-agricultural groups cannot be understood in isolation from the broader repertoire of leveling strategies that prevent would-be dominants from exercising power and influence over likely subordinates. In spite of that widespread view, quantitatively rigorous empirical studies of food sharing and cooperation in small-scale human groups have typically ignored the internal connection between leveling of income and political power, drawing inspiration instead from evolutionary models that are neutral about social role asymmetries. In this paper, I introduce a spatially explicit agent-based model of hunter-gatherer food sharing in which individuals are driven by the goal of maximizing their own income while minimizing income asymmetries among others.
在社会人类学家中,有一种几乎一致的观点认为,小规模非农业群体的食物分享做法不能脱离更广泛的均衡策略来理解,均衡策略可以防止潜在的统治者对可能的下属行使权力和影响。尽管有这种广泛的观点,但在小规模人类群体中对食物分享和合作进行的定量严谨的实证研究通常忽略了收入水平与政治权力之间的内在联系,而是从对社会角色不对称持中立态度的进化模型中汲取灵感。在本文中,我引入了一个基于空间显式主体的狩猎采集者食物共享模型,在该模型中,个体的目标是最大化自己的收入,同时最小化他人之间的收入不对称。
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引用次数: 0
Effect of Policy Implementation on Energy Retrofit Behavior and Energy Consumption in a Simulated Neighborhood 政策实施对模拟社区能源改造行为和能源消耗的影响
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4936
L. E. Egner, C. Klöckner
: As the heating of private households represents 16.5% of all EU final energy consumption, household energy retrofitting is a central part of the solution for the ongoing climate crisis. However, ABM models have not sufficiently been explored as a tool for designing policies for reducing household heating energy consumption through energy retrofitting. This paper presents the Household Energy Retrofit Behavior (HERB) model, which simulated energy retrofitting in a neighbourhood. The HERB model feeds a decision-making process based on existing behavioural household retrofit research with survey data and assesses the impact of different policies on cumulative energy need over 100 years. The model finds that the current Norwegian main retrofit subsidies have a positive effect on energy use. Furthermore, although motivating households to retrofit to a specific standard has no positive impact, motivating households close to retrofitting has a positive effect. Finally, lowering the threshold for receiving subsidies has a positive impact.
由于私人家庭供暖占欧盟最终能源消耗的16.5%,家庭能源改造是解决当前气候危机的核心部分。然而,ABM模型还没有被充分探讨作为设计通过能源改造减少家庭取暖能源消耗的政策的工具。本文提出了家庭能源改造行为(HERB)模型,该模型模拟了社区的能源改造。HERB模型提供了一个基于现有家庭改造行为研究和调查数据的决策过程,并评估了不同政策对100年累积能源需求的影响。该模型发现,目前挪威的主要改造补贴对能源使用有积极影响。此外,尽管激励家庭按照特定标准进行改造没有积极影响,但激励接近改造的家庭具有积极影响。最后,降低获得补贴的门槛具有积极影响。
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引用次数: 0
Deriving an Opinion Dynamics Model from Experimental Data 基于实验数据的意见动态模型
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4947
D. Carpentras, P. Maher, C. O'Reilly, M. Quayle
: Opinion dynamics models have huge potential for understanding and addressing social problems where solutions require the coordination of opinions, like anthropogenic climate change. Unfortunately, to date, most of such models have little or no empirical validation. In the present work we develop an opinion dynamics model derived from a real life experiment. In our experimental study, participants reported their opinions before and after social interaction using response options “agree” or “disagree,” and opinion strength 1 to 10. The social interaction entailed showing the participant their interaction partner’s agreement value on the same topic, but not their certainty. From the analysis of the data, we observed a very weak, but statistically significant influence between participants. We also noticed three important effects. (1) Asking people their opinion is sufficient to produce opinion shift and thus influence opinion dynamics, at least on novel topics. (2) About 4% of the time people flipped their opinion, while preserving their certainty level. (3) People with extreme opinions exhibited much less change than people having neutral opinions. We also built an opinion dynamics model based on the three mentioned phenomena. This model was able to produce realistic results (i.e. similar to real-world data) such as polarization from unpolarized states and strong diversity.
意见动态模型在理解和解决需要意见协调的社会问题(如人为气候变化)方面具有巨大潜力。不幸的是,到目前为止,大多数这样的模型很少或根本没有经验验证。在目前的工作中,我们开发了一个来自现实生活实验的意见动态模型。在我们的实验研究中,参与者在社交互动之前和之后使用“同意”或“不同意”的回答选项和意见强度1到10来报告他们的观点。社会互动需要向参与者展示他们的互动伙伴对同一话题的同意值,但不是他们的确定性。从数据分析中,我们观察到参与者之间的影响非常微弱,但在统计上是显著的。我们还注意到三个重要的影响。(1)询问人们的意见足以产生意见转变,从而影响意见动态,至少在新颖的话题上。(2)大约4%的人改变了他们的观点,同时保持了他们的确定性水平。(3)持极端观点的人比持中立观点的人表现出更小的变化。我们还基于上述三种现象建立了意见动态模型。该模型能够产生现实的结果(即类似于现实世界的数据),例如非极化状态的极化和强多样性。
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引用次数: 4
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