Calculation of an Indicator for Early Death Using Atomic Bomb Survivors’ Data

Abstract

Background: A comprehensive, traceable, and easy-to-understand radiation risk indicator is desired for radiological protection. The early-onset hypothesis could be used for this purpose.Materials and Methods: An indicator for early death (IED) was developed and calculated using the epidemiological dataset from the 14th Report of the Life Span Study (LSS) of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. By clarifying the calculation process, IED for all-cause mortality was estimated. In addition, the characteristics of IED for solid cancer mortality and cardiovascular mortality as well as those of men and women, and their dependence on age at exposure were investigated for detailed analysis.Results and Discussion: The IED for all-cause mortality was estimated to be approximately 4 years for an acute radiation exposure of 1 Gy regardless of the fitting dose range. The cumulative death rate for all solid cancers also indicated the early-death tendency (approximately 7–10 years at 1 Gy). Although, there is a slight difference in the characteristics of the risk obtained from the LSS study and this study, it is considered that the IED in a unit of years can also be used to show the overall picture of risk due to radiation exposure.Conclusion: We developed and calculated the indicator for early death, IED, for the cumulative mortality rate of all causes of death, all solid cancers, and circulatory diseases. The quantitative values of IED were estimated to be 4 years for all causes of death, 7–10 years for all solid cancers. IED has an advantage for intuitively understanding the meaning of radiation risk since it can be obtained by a simple and traceable method.