Day-ahead price forecasting based on hybrid prediction model

Abstract

Short-Term Price Forecast is a key issue for operation of both regulated power systems and electricity markets. Energy price forecast is the key information for generating companies to prepare their bids in the electricity markets. However, this forecasting problem is complex due to nonlinear, nonstationary, and time variant behavior of electricity price time series. So, in this article, the forecast model includes wavelet transform, autoregressive integrated moving average, and radial basis function neural networks (RBFN) is presented. Also, an intelligent algorithm is applied to optimize the RBFN structure, which adapts it to the specified training set, reduce computational complexity and avoids over fitting. Effectiveness of the proposed method is applied for price forecasting of electricity market of mainland Spain and its results are compared with the results of several other price forecast methods. These comparisons confirm the validity of the developed approach. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity, 2016