Projecting changes in phenology and grape composition of 'Tempranillo' and 'Grenache' varieties under climate warming in Rioja DOCa

M. C. Ramos, F. Toda
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引用次数: 5

Abstract

The aim of this research was to predict the changes in vine phenology under future climate change of two red varieties, cultivated under rainfed conditions, and how grape composition can be affected. The research was conducted in Rioja Designation of Origin (DOCa), a viticultural area located in north central Spain, where red varieties represent near 90 % of the cultivated vineyards. The research focuses on 'Tempranillo' and 'Grenache', which represent about 85 % and 10 %, respectively, of cultivated red varieties in the area. The analysis included data related to vineyards located at different elevations and with different climatic conditions, recorded during the period 2008-2018. Phenological dates related to separated flowers (stage H), veraison (stage M) and maturity of the two varieties as well as the grape composition during the ripening period and at maturity were evaluated. The future scenarios were based on the predicted temperature and precipitation changes under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios –RCP4.5 and RCP8.5-, which were simulated with an ensemble of models. Projections for 2050 and 2070 were made based on the observed phenological dates and the heat accumulation needed to reach each stage along the growing cycle. An advance of all phenological stages was projected, higher for veraison and maturity than for the earlier stages, and without large differences between both varieties but with differences at different elevations. Veraison is expected to be advanced up to 11 days for 2050 and up to 12 days for 2070 under the RCP4.5 scenario, while under the RCP8.5 scenario, the advance by 2070 could be up to 20 days for both varieties. For maturity, the advance could be up to 27 days for 'Tempranillo' and 25 days for 'Grenache', with differences between the cooler and the warmer areas. These changes resulted in a shortening of the periods between phenological stages, giving rise to maturity under warmer conditions. Based on the variability of grape composition observed in the warmer in relation to cooler years, and on the relationship with climate variables, a decrease in acidity as well as a reduction in the content of total anthocyanins is expected for both varieties, which may be higher for 'Grenache' than for 'Tempranillo'.
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气候变暖对里奥哈产区“丹美乐”和“歌海娜”葡萄物候和成分变化的影响
本研究旨在预测两种雨养红品种在未来气候变化下的葡萄物候变化,以及对葡萄成分的影响。这项研究是在里奥哈原产地指定区(DOCa)进行的,这是一个位于西班牙中北部的葡萄种植区,红色品种占种植葡萄园的近90%。研究的重点是“丹魄”和“歌海娜”,它们分别占该地区种植的红色品种的85%和10%。该分析包括2008年至2018年期间记录的与不同海拔和不同气候条件下的葡萄园相关的数据。对两个品种的分花期(H期)、期(M期)、成熟期的物候数据以及成熟期和成熟期的葡萄成分进行了评价。未来情景基于代表性浓度路径(Representative Concentration Pathway, rcp4.5)和RCP8.5-两种情景下的预测温度和降水变化,并采用多模式组合进行模拟。2050年和2070年的预估是基于观测到的物候日期和达到生长周期每个阶段所需的热量积累。预测各物候期均提前,变异和成熟度均高于前几个物候期,两个品种间差异不大,但不同海拔处存在差异。在RCP4.5情景下,到2050年,Veraison预计将提前11天,2070年将提前12天,而在RCP8.5情景下,到2070年,这两个品种的提前时间可能高达20天。就成熟期而言,“丹pranillo”最多可提前27天,“歌海娜”最多可提前25天,这在较冷和较热地区有所不同。这些变化导致物候阶段之间的周期缩短,在温暖的条件下成熟。根据在较暖年份与较冷年份所观察到的葡萄成分的可变性,以及与气候变量的关系,预计这两个品种的酸度和总花青素含量都将下降,“歌海娜”的含量可能高于“丹pranillo”。
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