Impact assessment of climate change on environmental flow component and water temperature—Kikuchi River

IF 4.6 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Journal of ecohydraulics Pub Date : 2019-07-03 DOI:10.1080/24705357.2019.1663713
R. Morid, Y. Shimatani, Tatsuro Sato
{"title":"Impact assessment of climate change on environmental flow component and water temperature—Kikuchi River","authors":"R. Morid, Y. Shimatani, Tatsuro Sato","doi":"10.1080/24705357.2019.1663713","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The Japanese archipelago extends over a large distance from north to south exposed to the effects of climate change. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of climate change on environmental components by using hydrological indicators. The future climate change in the region was initially projected using HadGEM2-ES and MICRO5 models in three 20-year periods (2021–2040, 2041–2060 and 2061–2080), considering two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 & RCP8.5). The Kikuchi streamflow was then simulated using Soil and Water Assessment Tool modelling for the baseline (1986–2016) and future periods. Finally, the magnitude, duration, timing, and frequency of extreme flows were analysed using Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration software. The results showed a decrease in discharge under both models; however, a 2 m3/s increase was predicted under HadGEM2-ES (RCP4.5) in 2041–2060. Changes in river flow affect habitat suitability in aquatic ecosystems, and might have further impacts if the effects of water temperature are also considered. In our case study, water temperature was predicted to increase by up to 4 °C by 2080. This phenomenon will change habitat suitability, because important environmental flow components, such as the peaks of high flows and large flood frequency, will also increase.","PeriodicalId":93201,"journal":{"name":"Journal of ecohydraulics","volume":"9 1","pages":"105 - 88"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6000,"publicationDate":"2019-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"10","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of ecohydraulics","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/24705357.2019.1663713","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10

Abstract

Abstract The Japanese archipelago extends over a large distance from north to south exposed to the effects of climate change. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of climate change on environmental components by using hydrological indicators. The future climate change in the region was initially projected using HadGEM2-ES and MICRO5 models in three 20-year periods (2021–2040, 2041–2060 and 2061–2080), considering two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 & RCP8.5). The Kikuchi streamflow was then simulated using Soil and Water Assessment Tool modelling for the baseline (1986–2016) and future periods. Finally, the magnitude, duration, timing, and frequency of extreme flows were analysed using Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration software. The results showed a decrease in discharge under both models; however, a 2 m3/s increase was predicted under HadGEM2-ES (RCP4.5) in 2041–2060. Changes in river flow affect habitat suitability in aquatic ecosystems, and might have further impacts if the effects of water temperature are also considered. In our case study, water temperature was predicted to increase by up to 4 °C by 2080. This phenomenon will change habitat suitability, because important environmental flow components, such as the peaks of high flows and large flood frequency, will also increase.
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
气候变化对菊地河环境流量成分和水温的影响评价
日本列岛从北向南延伸了很长一段距离,受到气候变化的影响。本研究的目的是利用水文指标来评估气候变化对环境成分的影响。采用HadGEM2-ES和MICRO5模式,考虑两种代表性浓度路径(RCP4.5和RCP8.5),初步预估了该地区未来气候变化的3个20年周期(2021-2040、2041-2060和2061-2080)。然后使用土壤和水评估工具模型对基线(1986-2016)和未来时期的菊池河进行了模拟。最后,利用水文变化指标(Indicators of Hydrologic蚀变)软件分析了极端流量的大小、持续时间、时间和频率。结果表明,两种模型下的放电均有所减小;然而,在HadGEM2-ES (RCP4.5)下,2041-2060年预计增加2 m3/s。河流流量的变化会影响水生生态系统的生境适宜性,如果考虑水温的影响,可能会产生进一步的影响。在我们的案例研究中,预计到2080年水温将上升4°C。这种现象将改变生境适宜性,因为重要的环境流量成分,如高流量峰值和大洪水频率也将增加。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 去求助
来源期刊
CiteScore
7.10
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
期刊最新文献
Urban stormwater management from the perspective of nature-based solutions: a bibliometric review Low-cost field particle image velocimetry for quantifying environmental turbulence Flood dynamics and its spatial prediction using open-channel hydraulics and hydrodynamic model in the dam-controlled river of India Forecasting green tide events in a semi-closed tidal flat using artificial intelligence and environmental big data Evaluating Apple iPhone LiDAR measurements of topography and roughness elements in coarse bedded streams
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1