Determinants of traffic violations in China: A case-study with a partial proportional odds model

IF 2.4 3区 工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Journal of Transportation Safety & Security Pub Date : 2021-11-18 DOI:10.1080/19439962.2021.1994682
Jingfeng Ma, Gang Ren, Haoxuan Fan, Shunchao Wang, Jingcai Yu
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引用次数: 6

Abstract

Abstract Traffic crashes involving vehicles are mainly caused by illegal driving behaviors. It is of paramount importance to mitigate traffic violation occurrences. This study positions itself to characterize the effects of contributing factors on traffic violation severity. Considering different traffic violation outcomes caused by various factors, this study selects 17 factors from the spatiotemporal, road-traffic, vehicle-driver, and environment characteristics based on 55,997 valid traffic violations. A model comparison as well as the elasticity for the optimal model (partial proportional odds model) is applied to facilitate the related interpretation. The results evidenced the significant roles of time of day, vehicle type, driver age, interference, road type, weather, lighting condition, and speed limit. The findings revealed that higher-grade roads, higher speed limits, lower visibility, more interference, and increasing traffic volumes are significantly associated with a reduction in the slight probabilities but an increase in the more severe probabilities. Older drivers with more experience are correlated with a substantial increase in the slight probabilities yet an obvious decrease in the mild probabilities. The findings could provide meaningful insights to prioritize effective related countermeasures.
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中国交通违规的决定因素:基于部分比例优势模型的个案研究
涉及车辆的交通事故主要是由违法驾驶行为引起的。减少交通违章事件的发生是至关重要的。本研究旨在描述交通违规严重程度的影响因素。考虑到各种因素导致的不同交通违法后果,本研究基于55,997条有效交通违法行为,从时空、道路交通、车辆驾驶员和环境特征中选择了17个因素。采用模型比较和最优模型(部分比例几率模型)的弹性来促进相关解释。结果证明了一天中的时间、车辆类型、驾驶员年龄、干扰、道路类型、天气、照明条件和限速的显著作用。研究结果显示,更高等级的道路、更高的限速、更低的能见度、更多的干扰和交通量的增加与轻微概率的降低显著相关,而与更严重概率的增加显著相关。经验丰富的老司机与轻微概率的显著增加相关,但轻微概率明显下降。研究结果可以为优先考虑有效的相关对策提供有意义的见解。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
15.40%
发文量
38
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