Targeting Your Preferences: Modelling Micro-Targeting for an Increasingly Diverse Electorate

Abstract

: The use of data to inform and run political campaigning has become an inescapable trend in recent years. In attempting to persuade an electorate, micro-targeted campaigns (MTCs) have been employed to great effect throughthe useof tailoredmessaging andselective targeting. Herewe investigatethe capacityof MTCs to dealwiththediversityofpoliticalpreferencesacrossanelectorate. Moreprecisely,viaanAgent-BasedModelwe simulate various diverse electorates that encompass single issue, multiple issue, swing, and disengaged voters (among others, including combinations thereof) and determine the relative persuasive efficacy of MTCs when pitted against more traditional, population-targeting campaigns. Taking into account the perceived credibility of these campaigns, we find MTCs highly capable of handling greater voter complexity than shown in previous work, and yielding further advantages beyond traditional campaigns in their capacity to avoid inefficient (or even backfiring) interactions – even when fielding a low credibility candidate.